With over half of the top 20 ranked men in the world on the start list for the US Open we can expect to see a tight fought race. Who are the top contenders to take the win?

Magnus Ditlev – arguably the best cyclist in triathlon at the moment and has shown he can swim towards the front of a race. Expect to see him coming into T2 among the leaders.

Alistair Brownlee – has found his form since struggling with stomach cramps in Edmonton, big wins at Ironman 70.3 Swansea and Ironman Sweden makes him a threat over any distance.

Lionel Sanders – showed his dominance at Collins Cup and with this course favouring him more than Edmonton we can expect to see him at the pointy end on the run.

Sam Long – losing out in a sprint finish to Sanders at the Collins Cup has pushed Long to focus on his speed going into Dallas. He has the bike power and run pedigree to feature in any race he starts.

Daniel Baekkegard – After missing the Canadian Open due to illness, Baekkegard returned at the Collins Cup to take the full 6 points in his match up. He showed off his ability across all 3 disciplines, expect to see a lot of him on race day.

Kristian Blummenfelt and Gustav Iden, currently ranked 1 and 2 respectively in the PTO rankings, are not racing the US Open as they build up to the Ironman World Championships in Kona next month. However there will be two Norwegians taking to the start line, Casper Stornes and Vetle Thorn. Stornes has more long course experience than Thorn, winning Ironman 70.3 Nice in 2021. They both finished in the top 5 at the World Cup in Bergen so will bring plenty of speed to Dallas.

Swim – Short course veterans to lead the way 

With many of the top swimmers from the two PTO events this year there will be a strong front pack. Expect to see Aaron Royle pushing the pace along with Sam Laidlow, Ben Kanute, Kyle Smith and Alistair Brownlee. There were strong performances from Magnus Ditlev, Daniel Baekkegard and Rudy Von Berg at Collins Cup, if they can make the front pack then this could make the group difficult to catch on the bike.

Tactical Note: Expect to see Alistair Brownlee sit in and follow fast feet in the water, setting up to hit it hard on the bike.

Bike – Ditlev to set the pace at the front 

The front pack of the swim could have significant bike power and even if Ditlev is slightly off the back he will bridge up to the front quickly. He could be joined by Frederic Funk who has had strong performances on the bike at the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships and PTO Edmonton. This could give Brownlee the perfect group to hold off Long and Sanders on the bike.

Tactical Note: Expect to see Long and Sanders team up again and share the load as they chase down the lead swimmers. If the leaders aren’t working effectively together this could give them the opportunity to bridge the gap.

Run – Who can outlast the heat to take the win?

With the number of strong cyclist in the field we could likely see a sizeable group come into T2 together. With Baekkegard, Long and Sanders running within 16 seconds of each other at the Collins Cup we could see a close match up deep into the run. Alistair Brownlee will set off hard in a bid to break his opponents early but this will be challenging with Sanders, who is renowned for pushing himself beyond any of his competitors.

We have seen lots of these athletes struggle in hot conditions, most notably Alistair Brownlee at the Canadian Open and Kona in 2019. It could quickly become a war of attrition on the run, with the last man standing crossing the line first.

Tactical Note: Socks or no socks? Athletes can save themselves a handful of seconds if they forgo socks. This can give an athlete the advantage coming out of transition first and require the chasers to push hard to close the gap.

Predictions – The class of Brownlee

1. Alistair Brownlee – betting on Brownlee to beat the heat and continue his fine form
2. Sam Long – Long to finally top Sanders on the run
3. Lionel Sanders – Sanders to outlast the rest of the field to round out the podium