Lucy Charles-Barclay – returned with a bang at the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships. Her run performance was outstanding in Samorin where she outran Emma Pallant-Browne, one of the best runners in the sport. Expect to see her punish athletes in the swim and lead from the gun.

Ashleigh Gentle – has made a splash in her first full year as a long course athlete, winning at Clash Miami, Ironman 70.3 Andorra, PTO Canadian Open and dominating her match up at the Collins Cup. She has the ability to swim in the front pack and has shown off her ability to run away from the field.

Paula Findlay – another Team International athlete who dominated her match up at the Collins Cup and was second to Gentle at her hometown race at the Canadian Open. Findlay is a big confidence racer and she must be feeling good coming into Dallas on the back of such strong performances.

Taylor Knibb – has struggled with an injury this year, only racing twice early in the season. One of those races being Ironman 70.3 California where she beat Findlay and Gentle, along with a raft of other athletes competing in Dallas. She has shown she can mix it up over the middle distance with outstanding performance at the Collins Cup and Ironman 70.3 World Championships in 2021. We saw Charles-Barclay come back strong from injury in August, could this be Knibb’s turn?

Flora Duffy – the reigning Olympic and World Champion has kept her form going over short course, winning in Hamburg and becoming the first athlete ever to retain Commonwealth Gold in Birmingham. However she was off the pace at the Collins Cup, after leading out the swim she lost touch with Daniela Ryf on the bike. She’ll have plenty of company at the front of the swim so it will be interesting to see if she can find some long course form having just received a wildcard invite to the Ironman 70.3 World Championships.

Kat Matthews – another athlete who struggled at the Collins Cup, but Matthews has had another outstanding year winning Ironman 70.3 Lanzarote and Swansea, 2nd at the Ironman World Championships and then smashing the 8 hour barrier at the SUB8 event in June. It easy to read too much into the Collins Cup performance, Dallas is a traditional race format and Matthews will benefit from having company on the swim and bike.

Womens Preview

Swim – Charles-Barclay to lead out, who can cling on?

We saw the return of Lucy Charles-Barclay at the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships and she was straight back to where she belongs, leading out the swim with a strong gap over the field. Coming into the US Open the question will be if anyone can hang on and swim with her? We have seen Sara Perez Sala swim with her at Clash Miami and Flora Duffy, who had the fastest swim at the Collins Cup, has followed her out the water at short course events. Ashleigh Gentle had a great swim at PTO Edmonton and could be another pick to make the front pack if several are able to stick with Charles-Barclay.

The key for the other contenders will be to limit losses to the front. Taylor Knibb and Paula Findlay will likely come out together which pairs two of the strongest cyclists in the sport. Kat Matthews had a disappointing result at Collins Cup, if she can stay close to Knibb and Findlay in the water then that adds even more fire power to the chasers.

Tactical Note: The first 500m to the first turn will likely be the hardest, Charles-Barclay will push the pace to split the group. If other athletes can make it round the first turn in touch then the pace should settle and they can get the benefit of sitting on the fastest feet in triathlon.

Bike – Findlay and Knibb to charge back 

Charles-Barclay will lead out the swim and be onto the bike quick hoping to keep a gap. If she is joined by Duffy and Gentle then we could see that group stay away from the field if they can work together. With the course containing several U-turns this gives short course athletes Duffy and Gentle the opportunity to close the gap to Charles-Barclay.

Findlay has dominated every bike course she has rode this year and expect to see the same on Saturday. She will likely be joined by Knibb who will both want to bridge up as quickly as possible to the leaders.

Ruth Astle is one of the strongest cyclists in the sport, she bridged and subsequently gapped Matthews at Ironman 70.3 Swansea. Could we see these friends work together to minimise losses to the front?

Tactical Note: Flora Duffy wore a standard road helmet at the Collins Cup, contrasted with the traditional long course athletes with aero helmets. A well fitting and tested aero helmet can save anywhere up to 15 watts, a big disadvantage if not using one.

Run – Can Gentle run away from the field?

We could see another Charles-Barclay special where she stays away from the field for the whole day. Her run was so impressive in Samorin that it’s hard not to pick her to go all the way. She will be chased by Gentle and Duffy, both incredible runners. Findlay was off the run pace in Edmonton but showed a marked improvement at the Collins Cup. She has talked about the importance of getting consistent run miles in, after strong races so far this year could she go one better in Dallas?

The weather conditions will play a significant part in the results on Saturday. Charles-Barclay has been training in Lanzarote ahead of the race and talked about how she likes racing in the heat. How athletes cope with the intensity in the heat will determine who comes out on top.

Tactical Note: When chasing down an athlete in front you will often see the chaser latch on to the leader and stay with them for a period of time. This gives them the opportunity to recover before making a move to take the lead. Chelsea Sodaro executed this to perfection at the Canadian Open.

Predictions

This is an incredibly hard race to predict with the calibre of the athletes racing. Having to choose between legends of the sport and the on form athletes.

1. Lucy Charles Barclay – she looked so strong in her return, especially on the run. She has become an all-round triathlete and will have her competitors doubting themselves.
2. Flora Duffy – Duffy will have been reeling after the Collins Cup, expect to see her come back with a vengeance.
3. Ashleigh Gentle – Gentle has the speed to run through the field even if there is a deficit coming off the bike.