With the top full distance athletes returning to racing in Kona, who is going to take the win?

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Swim – Charles-Barclay in her element

Lucy Charles-Barcaly has led out of the water every time she has raced in Kona, swimming between 48-49 minutes. Lauren Brandon is another elite swimmer who was able to hang with Charles-Barclay in 2017 and 2019. Expect to see these two break away from the field and be the first out on the bike.

Strong swimmers Haley Chura and Fenella Langridge will try and jump on Brandon’s feet but may have to resort to chasing. Prior results would put these two around 2-3 minutes back from Charles-Barclay. Lisa Norden and Sarah True could find themselves in no man’s land if they are unable to make this group.

The next pack of chasers will feature two of the key title contenders; Anne Haug and Daniela Ryf, as well as Skye Moench. The gap back to this pack will be in the region of 5 minutes and could give Charles-Barclay the advantage she needs. Laura Phillip and Chelsea Sodaro will hope to make this group but could drop a couple minutes to Ryf and Haug. This will make a large group of strong cyclists heading out on the bike course.

Tactical Note: At the US Open Charles-Barclay opted not to wear a swim skin. This gave her the advantage through transition and she was able to establish a gap over Taylor Knibb. Could we see her do the same in Kona to breakaway from Brandon?

Bike – Ryf to fly through the field

On to the bike and this is where Ryf has asserted her dominance in the past. At St George she was able to put 7 minutes in Kat Matthews and another 5 minutes into the rest of the field. Charles-Barclay will ride off the front, something she is very familiar with at Kona, but Ryf has the advantage of being able to ride with other athletes. The likes of Norden and Phillip could provide drafting and pacing with Ryf as they move through the field.

In prior years at Kona Ryf has been able to catch Charles-Barclay on the later stages of the bike. Charles-Barclay has improved since those races and even coming back from injury may be able to hold off Ryf until the run.

Further back expect to see Ruth Astle and Heather Jackson charging through the field. The pair are weaker swimmers but two of the best cyclists on the start list. They both have prior Kona experience; Jackson finished 4th in 2017 and Astle won the overall age group race in 2019.

Tactical Note: Ryf could choose to work with other riders such as Haug, Phillip and Norden to bridge up to Charles-Barclay. However the downside to this is that she would carry two elite runners in Haug and Phillip through the field. Expect to see her try to break the race apart and create a buffer heading on to the run.

Run – Can Haug reel in the leaders?

Expect to see Charles-Barclay out on the run first closely followed by Ryf. However with two outstanding runners chasing them down, they will need a healthy lead to take the victory. Phillip ran 2:45 in Hamburg and Haug ran 2:46 in Roth, as well as holding the Kona run course record at 2:51 from 2019.

With Charles-Barclay still returning from injury and not having raced a full distance race since the last race in Kona, her run over the marathon is a bit of an unknown. It’s worth noting that she hasn’t ran faster than a 3:05 in Kona, she will have to break 3 hours to be in with a chance of taking the win. Ryf has performed better on the run than Charles-Barclay but will still require a buffer over the two Germans. If either are within 10 minutes of the leader they stand a chance of catching them. When chasers are closing in it becomes as much a mental game as a physical one.

Equipment Check: Carbon plated shoes have evolved a lot over the last 3 years. Athletes wore them in 2019 but there have been multiple iterations of the earlier versions and new models disrupting the market. Since 2019 the Nike Alphafly Next % and Asics Metaspeed Sky/Edge models have become popular choices for triathletes and marathon runners. Don’t be surprised to see the run course record fall again.

Predictions

The top 4 PTO ranked athletes (Ryf, Haug, Charles-Barclay and Phillip) all have distinct strengths. The race will come down to who can capitalise on their strength, while limiting the downside of their weakness.

1. Daniela Ryf – hard to bet against the 5 x Ironman World Champion. She dominated at the Collins Cup and in St George, expect to see this form continue
2. Anne Haug – she has demonstrated she can perform in tough conditions, back to back wins at Roth and the reigning Kona champion
3. Laura Phillip – she rode the fastest bike split in 2019 and with the ability to run sub 2:50, she will always be a contender to take the win
4. Lucy Charles-Barclay – she will lead for a long portion of the race. However the doubts over her Ironman fitness make it difficult to fully believe in her run down the stretch
5. Lisa Norden – she proved at the US Open that she can race smart on the bike and perform well in the heat. These traits could see her outlast the field and make the top 5