A stacked field of athletes with the majority of contenders making their Kona debut. How will the race play out?

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Swim – Large pack of athletes to lead the way

There is a big group of strong swimmers on the start list. At St George in May we saw a group of 5 athletes come out of the water together, all of whom are racing at Kona. This group includes Sam Laidlow, Florian Angert, Kyle Smith, Daniel Baekkergard and Braden Currie. Then there are several athletes who weren’t at St George that will join this group; Josh Amberger, Tim O’Donnell, Maurice Clavel, Denis Chevrot, Jesper Svensson, Max Neumann and Sam Appleton. With such a big group of athletes they may find it difficult to get any real seperation from the field. Expect the leader of this group to come out of the water around 47 minutes.

The next pack will feature several title contenders. This is likely to include Kristian Blummenfelt, Patrick Lange, Collin Chartier and potentially Gustav Iden if he can follow the fast feet. Expect to also see 2017 and 2018 podium finisher David Mcnamee in this pack. Blummenfelt will hope to improve on his St George performance where he has over a 2 minute deficit to the front of the race.

Magnus Ditlev will be slightly off the back of Blummenfelt’s group but will hope to be within a minute. Further back we will see Joe Skipper, Lionel Sanders and Cam Wurf, who will have in the region of a 5 minute gap to make up to the front. This group has extreme firepower on the bike and can work together to bridge back to the front.

Bike – Firepower everywhere you look

Looking back at St George the same 5 athletes who came out of the water first were able to stay away on the bike and build up a lead of over 4 minutes. Will they be able to do it again? A larger group coming out of the water could make this more difficult. It’s harder to work well as a group when there are 10+ athletes in a pace line and if an athlete from the back wants to come up to take the lead they have to make a big surge to pass all athletes at once. However the riders from St George have demonstrated their firepower to stay away from the likes of Wurf, Blummenfelt and Sanders. They could whittle down the group coming out of the water and maintain a gap over the other chasers.

The Kona bike course represents a different challenge to St George. It favours the more traditional long course athletes who are able to hold their aero position for hours on end. The cross winds can also reduce the impacts of drafting, however there is still a good benefit sitting 12m back from the athlete in front. In 2019 the top contenders were off the front all day, but with the key contenders coming from behind it will be a different race dynamic.

The tactics of the two Norwegians, Blummenfelt and Iden, will be interesting to watch. In their first full distance races they were cautious on the bike leg, drafting athletes and saving plenty for the run. Now they have more experience they could be more aggressive on the bike. The quality of riders in the field is outstanding which may make it worthless to burn matches when they know they have the superior run. Why gain 2 minutes on the bike when you can put 10 minutes into most athletes on the run? With Ditlev, Skipper, Sanders and Wurf coming from behind, they may be happy to join this group and fly down to T2.

This race could settle who is the best cyclist in triathlon with Ditlev and Wurf duking it out. Ditlev will want to bridge to the front quickly and will hammer the first 20k like he did in Roth. Sanders, Skipper and Wurf will have to work hard to follow this move. We have seen Sanders race more conservatively this year, so he may decide to let this group go and save his run legs.

On current form it looks like Ditlev will bridge up and lead a big group into transition. His run has steadily improved and the other contenders won’t want to give him too much of a lead.

Equipment Check: Kona is a hotbed for new and emerging triathlon tech and this year we have seen several pros with the HED super deep section wheels. Disc wheels are banned in Kona due to high winds so HED have come through with an innovative design that complies with the rules but gives a similar benefit to a disc wheel. This will give athletes like Ditlev and Sanders an extra advantage on race day.

Run – Records to be broken

Since Kona 2019 the level of running has been raised, with athletes regularly running in the 2:30s. Expect to see Blummenfelt, Iden, Lange and Skipper all go sub 2:40. The run course record was set by Lange in 2016 and stands at 2:39:45, this could fall by 5 minutes. With the stellar quality of runners, if you are not running at least low 2:40s then you are unlikely to make the top 5.

In the women’s race we saw a large group of athletes come into transition within touching distance and Chelsea Sodaro was able to out run them all. Expect to see a similar dynamic with the men. Expect to see the Norwegians setting the pace and seeing who can stick with them. It would be great to see these two running side by side deep into the marathon.

The back half of the marathon becomes a war of attrition and athletes can run themselves into the top 10 with a good performance, while athletes who have gone too hard on the bike will start to fade and slide backwards.

Tactical Note: Transitions are becoming increasingly important in long course triathlon. Athletes can bridge up to their competitors by having an efficient transition, it is free speed. Lionel Sanders takes a different approach and has a full outfit change from his trisuit to running vest and shorts. This additional time could see him lose a group heading out on to the run. With more and more races coming down to a close finish, this could be the difference.

Predictions

With large packs of riders expected on the bike, the title will come down to who can outlast their opponents on the run. The Norwegians have raised the bar in long course racing and they are the clear favourites for the top spot despite this being their Kona debut.

1. Kristian Blummenfelt – he has been outstanding this year and has the edge over Iden in terms of long course experience
2. Gustav Iden – have seen him rider away from the field over middle distance. He has the potential to do the same in Kona but may want to save his legs for the run
3. Joe Skipper – off the back of a storming run at IM Wales expect to see him running away from his competitors onto the podium
4. Magnus Ditlev – there is easily a scenario where he rides off the front and gets a gap into T2. Not quite the same level of runner as the others in the top 5 but should still be around 2:40
5. Patrick Lange – with a wealth of experience you can expect to see him pick off athletes one by one on the run and break his own record