Championship racing returns to St George, Utah where the top athletes in the world will battle it out to be crowned IM 70.3 World Champion. Can Lucy Charles-Barclay go back to back or will there be a new champion?

Contenders

Lucy Charles-Barclay – reining IM 70.3 World Champion and runner up in Kona will be planning for a repeat of 2021 where she led from start to finish.

Taylor Knibb – returned to racing at the US Open, after suffering a run injury, and came away with 2nd. During her recovering she put in big bike mileage and that showed in Dallas where the obliterated the field. Could she do the same in St George?

Paula Findlay – she was injured for the 2021 race but has had a strong year in 2022. She showed her strength on the bike in Edmonton, expect to see her riding up through the field.

Flora Duffy – has had a mixed introduction to middle distance racing, struggling at Collins Cup and 6th at the US Open. She has had time to focus on the build up to this race so we could see her have a strong performance in St George.

Emma Pallant-Browne – a packed season of racing has seen her win 5 races as well as 2nd at the Challenge Family Championship and World Triathlon Long Distance Championships. She has the ability to run through the field onto the podium.

Swim

Lucy Charles-Barclay dominated the swim in 2021, coming out of the water 1:27 ahead of the chase pack. Charles-Barclay will lead out the field again but will she be joined by Taylor Knibb? We saw Knibb hang with Charles-Barclay at the US Open in September. Knibb was able to close down a gap early and sit on feet for the whole swim. I can see Charles-Barclay putting in a big surge in the opening 400m to get a gap on Knibb and create a buffer heading onto the bike. Knibb could be left in no mans land if she cannot follow Charles-Barclay.

Expect to see Flora Duffy, Holly Lawrence, Paula Findlay, Lotte Wilms and Ellie Salthouse in the first chase pack around a minute back from the leaders. Flora Duffy has a chance to make the front two if she has a good swim. She has swam with Charles-Barclay and Knibb in short course races so could see the same in St George.

Emma Pallant-Browne is the other key contender but she will be immediately on the back foot as a weaker swimmer. She will hope to limit the gap to around 3 minute, much more could see her out of the race for the podium before she’s even on the bike.

Bike

The bike course is technical and hilly, with over 1,000m of elevation gain a third of which comes on the 10km climb through Snow Canyon. The technical nature of the course could favour the short course athletes and strong riders who are comfortable with descending on the aero bars.

Expect to see Charles-Barclay and Knibb out onto the bike first. Charles-Barclay outrode Knibb by 3:28 in 2021 but since then Knibb has raced more middle distance races and is coming off a big block of bike focused training. Knibb dominated on the bike at the US Open, expect to see the same in St George. Charles-Barclay had mechanical issue with her bike in that race so it will be interesting to see if she can close the gap to Knibb.

Findlay, Duffy and Lawrence rode together at the US Open and if they come out of the water together then we could see the same in St George. These conditions favour all the athletes more than the US Open but I think we’ll see a more aggressive version of Findlay. She will want to assert her strength on the bike and build a gap over the likes of Duffy who has a faster run pedigree.

Pallant-Browne will need to work hard early on to bridge up to the lead chasers. She has the ability to run through the field but will want to make sure she stays within touching distance.

Run

An updated course from 2021 sees the athletes complete two loops with total elevation of 215m. This isn’t as much as last year so expect to see faster times.

Out onto the run course and I can’t see there being much separation between Charles-Barclay and Knibb. If Findlay has a strong ride then she could also be within touching distance coming out of T2. Knibb struggled on the run in Dallas, she has had 5 weeks since that race so should be coming into St George with better run legs. Will this be enough to hold off Charles-Barclay and Findlay?

Findlay’s run has improved through the year and on her day she can stick with Knibb and Charles-Barclay but it will depend on how hard she has to go on the bike. Charles-Barclay had her best ever run performance in Kona this year and she hasn’t looked out of touch since returning from injury. She dominated the run last year so will have the confidence she can do the same this year.

Duffy, Pallant-Browne and Jackie Herring will be running through the field trying to break onto the podium. I am still waiting for Duffy to have a breakthrough middle distance race, could this be the race we see her transfer her short course dominance to middle distance?

Predictions

I think the title will be between Charles-Barclay and Knibb. They will have a gap coming out of the water and are both two of the best cyclists in the field. WIth Ashleigh Gentle not racing it will come down to who can put down the best run performance.

1. Lucy Charles-Barclay – she will be flying high after a strong performance in Kona. If she can overcome the fatigue then she is my pick for the win
2. Taylor Knibb – she has shown her quality on the swim and bike this year. She will need to have a strong run if she is to challenge for the top spot
3. Paula Findlay – this is a course that suits Findlay so we could see her bridging up to the front group on the bike. She will need to show a further improvement in her run if she wants to break into the top 2
4. Flora Duffy – has the potential to win the whole race but hasn’t been able to feature in the middle distance races she has done this year
5. Emma Pallant-Browne – may have too much of a gap to make up after the swim but I can see her picking off athletes on the run