As championship racing season has finished, we move back to local races and begin the journey for athletes to qualify for Kona 2023. IM Arizona has a strong field with 4 of the top 20 ranked athletes going head to head to make the podium. The course record on 7:44:29 set by Lionel Sanders in 2016 looks under threat with the calibre of athletes on the start line. There are two qualifying slots available and as Joe Skipper has already qualified, finishing on the podium could be enough.

Contenders

Sam Long (#8) – an up and down year for Long with many external factors impacting his racing. He was hit by a car before IM World Championships in May and was dealt a 5 minute penalty at the IM 70.3 World Championships last month. He will have a significant gap out of the water but should have plenty company on the bike to bridge up. He was off the pace in Roth so he will be hoping for a better showing in Tempe.

Joe Skipper (#14) – third Ironman in as many months for Skipper. He overcame a mechanical in Wales to dominant the race and ran up to 5th in Kona. The conditions in Arizona will favour him more than Kona, the morning will start cool and top out around 22 degrees. Skipper will hope to have an advantage over Long out of the swim, ride with him to T2 and break away on the run. After running 2:37 in Wales, we could see him go even faster.

Ben Kanute (#16) – fresh off his 2nd place finish at the IM 70.3 World Championships, Kanute is straight into his first ever full distance race. His addition adds an interesting dynamic to the race as all the other contenders are weaker swimmers who will look to move through the field on the bike and run. Kanute impressed on the run in St George, it will be interesting to see if he can transfer that form to the marathon.

Matt Hanson (#17) – a disappointing year for Hanson, finishing outside the top 10 at all three championship races and outside the top 20 at the Canadian and US Opens. Historically he has been a standout on the run, but the level has been raised by Skipper and the Norwegians. He’ll need a strong bike-run combination to challenge for the podium.

Chris Leiferman (#21) – another athlete who has had an up and down season. He finished 4th at the St George world championships but blew up in Kona, finishing 44th. A blow up of that proportion takes time to recover from physically and mentally. Hopefully Leiferman is in a position to challenge for the top 5 in Arizona.

Kristian Hogenhaug (#28) – another athlete with a disappointing result in Kona, coming home in 26th, but 6th at the US Open shows he can mix it up with the best. A strong result could move him back into the top 25 of the PTO rankings after slipping down following the recent championship races.

Swim

Kanute will be joined at the front of the swim by PTO #1 ranked swimmer Andrew Horsfall-Turner. The former elite swimmer clocked a 44 minute split at IM Wales and led the race until 18km through the run. With these two working together the course record of 45:31 could be under threat. Expect to see this pair come out of the water with around a 5 minute gap to the main contenders.

If Hogenhaug has a good swim he may only be 2-3 minutes back. Skipper was disappointed with his swim in Kona and will be hoping to bridge the gap to Hogenhaug but could be back with the other contenders. Hanson and Leiferman were within touching distance of each other in Kona so we could see the same again. Long will be hoping to keep in touch with this group but he was 1:19 back from Hanson in St George last month and that was only middle distance.

Bike

The bike course is covered across 3 loops with total elevation of 761m. A relatively flat course for a full distance race should result in quick times across the board.

Kanute and Horsfall-Turner will have a healthy gap out of T1 and could work together to fight off the chasers. With this being Kanute’s first full distance we could see him conserving energy and biding his time for the run. The chasing pack features two of the strongest riders in triathlon; Joe Skipper and Sam Long. It will be interesting to see if they are able to work together or if Long tries to gain a gap over Skipper.

Skipper was dropped by a pack in Kona led by Cam Wurf and Leon Chevalier. He said himself before the race he was nervous about the heat. I’m excited to see what performance he can put together in more favourable conditions.

Hanson, Leiferman and Hogenhaug will all try and follow Skipper and Long but I can’t see them keeping pace. They will have to work together to limit the deficit to the leaders.

Run

With the bike strength of Long and Skipper, they could have a decent gap coming into T2. If they stay close together on the bike then Skipper has to be the favourite heading onto the run. Long hasn’t ran a sub 2:45 marathon in an Ironman. With Skipper running 2:37 in Wales he should have the advantage.

Kanute will be in new found territory on the marathon and will likely build into the run to avoid blowing up. His performance in St George was outstanding so he will be full of confidence, lets hope he an overcome the fatigue.

Among the other contenders Hanson is the major threat with his run pedigree. If he can work himself into a good position on the bike then he will put the other athletes under pressure. I think he’ll have the advantage over Hoegenhaug and Leiferman on the run but will fall short of the podium.

Predictions

Skipper looks like the favourite heading into Arizona and he’ll have extra motivation as a strong performance could move him into the top 10 PTO ranked athletes. He’ll have to overcome a fiery Sam Long and in form Ben Kanute to take the title.

1. Joe Skipper
2. Sam Long
3. Ben Kanute
4. Matt Hanson
5. Kristian Hogenhaug