One race to go in the World Triathlon Championships Series and the race for the world title comes down to the final race for both the men and women. Taylor-Brown vs Duffy and Wilde vs Yee, who will take the title in Abu Dhabi?

The race for the World Title

Over the season athletes have competed to win individual races and accumulate ranking points for the world title. They are ranked on their top 4 performances across the year, plus any points from the championship race in Abu Dhabi. The top points available in Abu Dhabi are 1250 and they are reduced by 7.5% for each position after.

Taylor-Brown with a slim margin over Duffy

George Taylor-Brown has a 69.38 point advantage over Flora Duffy however with the increased points on offer it means that if Duffy comes ahead of Taylor-Brown, and is in the top 4 places, then she will take the world title. If Duffy comes 5th or below then she will need other athletes come between them. Both athletes are firm favourites to make the top 4 and therefore the answer is simple. Whoever finishes in front of the other takes the crown.

As the points from Abu Dhabi are added to the current totals, there are scenarios where lower ranked athletes like Beth Potter and Taylor Knibb take the overall title. However this would only occur if Duffy and Taylor-Brown had serious issues.

Yee in hot pursuit of Wilde

A similar picture on the men’s side with two athletes battling it out for the world title. However the result required for Alex Yee isn’t as simple as it could have been. Yee trails Wilde by 117.91 points which is larger than any of the differences between finishing places. Therefore Yee needs an athlete to finish between him and Wilde. As Wilde is leading the task for him is simpler, beat Yee or finish one spot below him.

As with the women there is a scenario where Jelle Geens or Leo Bergere win the title, but this would rely on Yee and Wilde falling back in the race.

The Course

The 1.5k swim is covered across two laps of 750m, so we will get a chance to see how the field is split up half way through the swim. The athletes exit the water and make 250m dash to transition and mount their bikes. The athletes will complete 9 laps covering the 40k distance. The bike course looks flat and fast and we could see large groups form on the course as athletes struggle to breakaway.

The athletes dismount their bikes and set off on 4 laps of the run course to complete the 10k. As with the bike course this looks like a fast and flat course, but the athletes will really start to battle to heat at this point. The temperature is forecast to be around 30 degrees when the athletes are racing.

Men’s Preview

The men’s race is set to be fast and furious with 18 of the top 20 ranked athletes on the start list. With such strength and depth in the field and the break since Bermuda, athletes should be firing on all cylinders come race day.

Expect to see Vincent Luis at the front of the swim once again, but with the depth of field don’t be surprised to see several athletes on his feet. I can see at least 10 athletes, including Jonathan Brownlee, Leo Bergere and Matt Hauser, who will be aiming to follow Luis in the water. This provides plenty of fire power on the bike for a breakaway to stick. We have already a Luis and Bergere breakaway this season in Leeds. The French duo will surely be working together to give Bergere the best chance possible of winning the world title. The risk of so many athletes being in the front pack is that it creates a chain of athletes back to the weaker swimmers, meaning that the front pack cannot get away.

A front pack of Luis, Bergere, Brownlee and Hauser could be dangerous for the chasers. Brownlee and Hauser had strong performances in Super League and Brownlee capitalised on his form to take 2nd in Cagliari.

Yee, Wilde, Kristian Blummenfelt, Gustav Iden, Jelle Geens, Antonio Serrat Seoane and Roberto Sanchez Mantecon will all be further back and I expect to see them come out relatively close together, with Blummenfelt having a slight advantage over the rest. Adding Wilde back into the chase pack will provide extra strength to the chasers that struggled to reel in Luis’s bike pack in Bermuda. Yee and Wilde will be hoping to bridge up to the front pack on the bike and then breakaway on the run.

A rested Blummenfelt will also pose a threat throughout this race. He finished 6th in Bermuda, a week after winning the IM 70.3 world championships. More recovery and specific training can only improve his performance going into Abu Dhabi. Yee and Wilde will likely come out of the water slightly down on Blummenfelt so will need to work hard early to get on his wheel.

Seoane and Sanchez Mantecon impressed on the run in Bermuda. If they can stick with Yee and Wilde on the bike then they have the ability to run together and challenge for the win. Geens was outrun by the Spaniards in Bermuda but he’ll have the confidence going into the race that he has won in Abu Dhabi before, even if the course has changed.

Predictions
Yee and Wilde have raced 4 times this season, with Yee winning each race except for Leeds where a crash, caused by Wilde, ended his race. I think if the chasers can bridge up to the leaders on the bike then Alex Yee will be able to run through the field to take the win. The addition of Wilde, and a recovered Blummenfelt, to the chasers on the bike will enable them to bridge up quicker and Yee won’t have to do as much work on the front as he did in Bermuda.
1. Alex Yee
2. Hayden Wilde
3. Vincent Luis
4. Leo Bergere
5. Kristian Blummenfelt

Women’s Preview

With all of the top 20 ranked athletes on the start list the final race of 2022 is going to be highly contested. Georgia Taylor-Brown and Flora Duffy have been dominant all year, when either of them have been racing they have only ever not won once this season, when Cassandre Beuagrand won in Leeds.

Duffy will try a get a gap in the swim and make a break to stay away. Taylor-Brown has been strong on the bike all year and should be able to follow Duffy, it just depends how much energy this costs. We saw at the Commonwealth Games, Taylor-Brown went with Duffy on the bike but then fell back on the run.

Taylor Knibb will look to make it as hard as possible on the bike. She was off the pace in the swim in Bermuda but she’ll be more rested than she was going into that race. She’ll be aiming to come out near the front with Duffy and Taylor-Brown and then lay down the power. Her run isn’t quite at the same level as the other two so she’ll need a gap on the bike with a chance of winning the race.

Cassandre Beaugrand is another athlete that will be at the pointy end of the race. She is one of the best swimmers in the field and will make the other athletes work hard to stick on her feet. She has struggled on the bike at times this year but the Abu Dhabi course isn’t as technical as other WTCS course so this could favour her. She is a superb runner and has the ability to outrun anyone if she hasn’t burnt her legs on the bike.

Beth Potter has had a breakthrough year with 3 WTCS podiums and 3rd at the Commonwealth Games. She has been improving all year and poses a real threat in Abu Dhabi. Similar to Beaugrand, she is an outstanding runner and it will depend how hard she has had to work on the bike to limit the deficit to the leaders. She has improved on the bike but hasn’t been able to stick with Knibb, Taylor-Brown and Duffy in previous races.

Expect to see Taylor Spivey and Sophie Coldwell both in the mix from the start of the race. They both had excellent campaigns in Super League but perhaps were carrying too much fatigue into Bermuda to challenge for the podium. A few more weeks of training and recovery should set them up well to feature more in Abu Dhabi.

Laura Lindemann flies under the radar but always seems to be able to run through to near the top 5. If athletes start to falter she will be running through fast to capitalise and climb up the leader board.

Predictions
Taylor-Brown and Duffy have raced 4 times this season and they’ve beaten each other twice. Taylor-Brown has lost to Duffy at the Olympics and Commonwealth Games but I think this time she will overcome Duffy and take the world title. Expect to see them ride together and then hit the run hard, with Taylor-Brown breaking away to take the win.
1. Georgia Taylor-Brown
2. Flora Duffy
3. Taylor Knibb
4. Beth Potter
5. Cassandre Beaugrand