Athletes head to Indian Wells for the final American pro race of the season. Paula Findlay will be looking to reclaim her title after winning in 2019 and not racing last year. Lionel Sanders has one this race each of the three times it has occurred, will his winning streak come to an end?

Women’s Contenders

Paula Findlay – comes to Indian Wells as the firm favourite to take the win. A superb year where she came 2nd at the Canadian Open and 2nd at IM 70.3 world championships. Her first win of the season here would round it off nicely. Expect to see her at the front of the race from the gun and breakaway on the bike. She is also the course record holder at Indian Wells. Over the 3 years of racing, no other athlete has come within 6 minutes of her 4:07:38 time from 2019.

Tamara Jewett – wasn’t able to break into the top 10 at either of the PTO Tour events but was able to finish 9th at the IM 70.3 world champs where she ran up from 18th place. She is one of the fastest runners in the sport so will be a threat even if 5 minutes back off the bike. 2nd at this race in 2021, can she go one better this year?

Danielle Lewis – followed up DNFs at the US Open and IM 70.3 world championships with 3rd place at IM Arizona, posting a 2:52 marathon and outrunning over 20 of the men. She will be familiar with the course as the defending champion from 2021 but she will have to overcome the fatigue of racing an Ironman only two weeks ago.

Jeanni Metzler – has missed the majority of this year due to a combination of personal reasons and injury, her only race being the Canadian Open where she came 29th. This makes her a bit of an unknown coming into Indian Wells as we don’t know where her fitness is. Her 2nd place at IM 70.3 world championships makes her one of the best athletes in the world when at her best but she will likely be rusty given the lack of racing. She has the ability to swim with Findlay so could see her in the race early.

Predictions
Findlay is the clear favourite and I expect to see her dominate this race from the start. She will be one of the stronger swimmers in the field and with her bike pedigree she will look to breakaway and build a big advantage on the run to keep away from Jewett and Lewis.
1. Paula Findlay
2. Tamara Jewett
3. Jeanni Metzler
4. Danielle Lewis
5. Jeanne Collogne

Men’s Contenders

Lionel Sanders – looking to finish the year on a high after two disappointing results at the PTO Open and IM world championships in Kona. It’s easy to focus too much on those results and overlook his 2nd place in St George and performance at the Collins Cup. As the three time winner he clearly performs well on this course and the conditions are a lot more favourable than Dallas and Kona.

Sam Long – another athlete looking to finish the year on a more positive note after receiving a penalty at IM 70.3 world championships and struggling with back pain at IM Arizona. Middle distance wins in Miami, Peurto Varas and Gdynia, as well as 3rd at the US Open highlight his year. He’ll be carrying fatigue from Arizona and his race could hang on whether his back is recovered.

Eric Lagerstrom – has been struggling with a hip injury for a long period of time which can make or break his race. Wins this year at Escape from Alcatraz and IM 70.3 Santa Cruz show his class. He will swim off the front and look to hold on to the lead for as long as possible on the bike. He’s performed well on this course, coming 2nd to Sanders in 2019.

Justin Metzler – was down to race IM Arizona but pulled out at the last minute with what turned out to be covid. This race would make it a pretty quick turnaround and we are still waiting to here if he is racing. He has performed well over the 70.3 distance with a win in Oregon and four other podiums. He won’t have the same race fatigue as Long but the recovery from covid can easily derail a race even when feeling fine.

Trevor Foley – logged his first career win at IM 70.3 Waco as well as two 2nd place finishes at Augusta and Los Cabos. His bike-run combination is a real threat, it just depends how far back he is out of the water. He was 5th at Indian Wells last year and will be looking to make the podium this time round. It will be interesting to see if he can hang with Long and Sanders if he has a good swim.

Jackson Laundry – his season got off to a great start with a big win at IM 70.3 California but he struggled in the PTO Tour events, not breaking into the top 15 in either. He bounced back at IM 70.3 worlds with 7th. He decided to race twice over 3 days, racing at Clash Daytona where he came 8th. A tough race and a long flight doesn’t bode well for a good performance so I will be surprised if he features near the front of the race.

Matthew McElroy – making his IM 70.3 debut in Indian Wells. He raced the Canadian Open and came 14th, posting the 3rd fastest run of the day. He should be able to swim with Lagerstrom and they can then work together on the bike. His run from Edmonton shows if he is within touching distance then he’ll be a threat.

Bart Aernouts – has been slightly off the pace this year with IM Arizona being his only top 5 finish. He was able to run through the field posting the second fastest run of the day with a 2:44:20. As with Long he’ll be carrying the fatigue of a full distance race which could hit him on the back half of this race. The field favours his strength with the main contenders being weaker swimmers.

Predictions
Sanders clearly likes the course as the three time winner and the conditions favour him, even if the swim is going to be chilly. He’ll come into the race fresher than Long and if he’s racing well he should outperform the rest of the field.
1. Lionel Sanders
2. Sam Long
3. Eric Lagerstrom
4. Trevor Foley
5. Matthew McElroy