Short course racing returns in Abu Dhabi. The athletes will be back in Yas Marina only 14 weeks on from last years Grand Final, this time racing over the sprint distance. This race opened the “2022” season back in November 2021. Flora Duffy and Jelle Geens took the win on that day, as Duffy is not on the startlist there will be at least one different winner in 2023.

New Year, No Points

The last time athletes were heading to Abu Dhabi the world title was on the line. With the 2022 season complete, the points are reset and athletes will be looking to get off to a strong start to set themselves up for the rest of the season.

Over the season athletes will compete to win individual races and accumulate ranking points for the world title. They are ranked on their top 4 performances across the year, plus any points from the championship final race in Pontevedra, Spain. The maximum points available in an Olympic distance race is 1,000, compared to 750 in sprint distance and 1,250 in the championship final. The points are reduced by 7.5% for every position.

Men’s Preview

For the first race of the season the men’s field is looking strong, scoring a 96% strength of start list rating. If you want to learn more about the strength of start list rating you can read about it here. The field includes the top 3 athletes from last year; Léo Bergere, Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde, and features 9 of the top 10 ranked athletes. However there are 7 of the top 25 athletes missing including Lasse Lührs, Pierre Le Corre and Marten Van Reil, who is still recovering from an injury that kept him out of the second half of last season. After appearing on the start list a couple weeks ago Kristian Blummenfelt has now been removed, no word of why but he did report being ill at a training camp in Morocco.

At this race in November 2021 Vincent Luis led out the swim in 8:43 and he was joined by Márk Dévay, one second back. Both Luis and Dévay are on the start list so expect to see them driving the pace at the front of the swim again. They are the two best swimmers in the sport, ranking #1 and #2 in my 2022 WTCS swim rankings. The rest of the field will be looking to keep in touch with the leaders and limit any damage.

As I discussed in my 5 thoughts on the upcoming short course season article, I am excited to see the level of Hayden Wilde’s swim coming into the new season. He continuously improved in 2022 and was focussing this offseason on improving his get out speed. This will be the first test of that work. In previous years we have seen him come out of the water close to Yee and Blummenfelt. Wilde will be hoping that he will have some separation coming into 2023 and be able close the gap to Bergere.

Luis and Dévay were part of the breakaway in the most recent race in Abu Dhabi and will be hoping to do the same again. The only other athletes on the start list who made the breakaway are Bergere and Seth Rider. They all worked well together then, could we see them do the same this time round? Unless extra riders can join this group then they may struggle. Someone who could make the jump is Matthew Hauser. He is stronger over the shorter distance events and has the swim to bridge the gap. The chasers will also be wary of letting them getting too much of a lead after Bergere ran to victory in the championship final, gaining a big advantage off the bike.

As usual expect to see Wilde and Yee driving the pace of the chasers. With Blummenfelt now off the start list the chase pack could be lacking some fire power, but his compatriot Gustav Iden has been added to the field which should help mitigate the issue. The chase pack will have to be alert to athletes like Jelle Geens and Morgan Pearson getting too much of a free ride. Geens was the best cyclist in triathlon last year, finishing #1 in our rankings, and he ran to victory at this race in 2021.

The run is where we will really see who is in good shape and who is still building the fitness. The top 5 runners from last year are all on the start list and will all be a threat. The top 5 are Yee, Wilde, Geens, Bergere and Hauser. Morgan Pearson returned to WTCS racing in Abu Dhabi at the end of last year and put down the fastest time. He’s proven he can deal with the conditions and race well at the venue, if he’s within touching distance then he will challenge for the podium.

Podium Predictions
I always find it hard to look past Alex Yee when picking a winner for a race. His run pedigree makes him the favourite when coming off the bike in the lead group. I think the chasers will reel in any breakaway out of the swim and come into T2 together. This plays into Yee’s hands and he will run to victory.
1. Alex Yee
2. Hayden Wilde
3. Matthew Hauser

Women’s Preview

The women’s field isn’t quite as strong as the men’s but still scores a 93% strength of field rating. There are 19 of the top 25 ranked athletes racing, but with Flora Duffy (#1) and Taylor Knibb (#4) both absent the rating drops. Duffy and Knibb are both athletes who have the ability to breakaway by themselves and win a race. With them missing from the field the race dynamics will be impacted and it puts Georgia Taylor-Brown in the driving seat. Knibb and Duffy are two of the athletes who can ride with Taylor-Brown and with them not racing it could make it harder for the other athletes to keep in touch, as there are fewer wheels to sit behind.

Summer Rappaport led the swim rankings last year and expect to see her near the front of the race from the gun. Vittoria Lopes, Cassandre Beaugrand and Taylor-Brown are the other athletes on the start list who finished in the top 5. Beaugrand usually starts strong with a great dive and I would expect Taylor-Brown to sit in amongst the fast feet. Other athletes I can see with this group are Sophie Coldwell and Emma Lombardi.

There will likely be a small gap back to Beth Potter, Leonie Periault and Taylor Spivey. Spivey has been ill over the offseason so her form coming into this race is a bit of an unknown. Potter made the front group in Abu Dhabi at the end of last year so we could see the same again. If she does then she’ll set herself up for a strong race. With Knibb and Duffy absent it is a great opportunity to get a podium and rack up some early points.

Onto the bike and look for Taylor-Brown to push early to see who can hang at the front. Coldwell, Lopes and Lombardi should be able to stick with her if the group is working together. Beaugrand is weakest on the bike and typically hasn’t been able to ride at the front, but if she can work with the chasers to keep in touch then she can run through the field.

Spivey is one of the stronger cyclists in the sport so expect to see her driving the pace of the chasers and working to stay in touch if she is feeling good. She will want to ensure Potter and Beaugrand are doing their share of the work as they are two of the best runners in the sport.

Taylor-Brown will likely come into T2 in a breakaway and then set the pace at the front of the run. Emma Lombardi is one of the only athletes in the field who will be able to ride and run with Taylor-Brown, but only if she has a good swim. Outside of these two I think it will come down to a running race between the chasers. Potter, Beaugrand and Periault are three of the best runners in the sport and it depends how hard they have had to work on the bike. Potter struggled in Abu Dhabi at the end of last season, while Periault ran the second fastest time of the day at 32:54.

Podium Predictions
With Duffy not on the startlist, Taylor-Brown is the firm favourite heading into the first race of the season. Duffy, Knibb and Taylor-Brown are in their own tier. I expect to see Taylor-Brown control the race from start to finish. The only risk is if the elite runners get an easy ride at the front of the race and come into T2 fresh and with a small deficit to make up.
1. Georgia Taylor-Brown
2. Emma Lombardi
3. Leonie Periault