The biggest race of the season so far will take place this weekend in Ibiza. Before the start lists were revealed there were murmurings that the field wouldn’t be as strong as first anticipated. These worries went out the window when the announcement came that 7 of the top 10 athletes would be racing and Alistair Brownlee and Jan Frodeno were added as wildcards.

With a SOF of 90.76 and a strength of start list rating of 89%, this will be one of the strongest fields we see all year. With Sam Laidlow withdrawing the strength scores have dropped slightly but this is still an outstanding field.

I have ranked the start list top to bottom, splitting the athletes into four tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athlete I see in the middle of the field that could break into the top 10
• Long Shots – athletes I expect to finish in the bottom half of the field
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Kristian Blummenfelt – a delayed start to the year with illness preventing him racing the WTCS season opener in Abu Dhabi. With the strength of swimmers in the field he could find himself with a gap to make up out of the water but with other strong riders coming from behind he should be able to bridge up. With short course training being the focus, expect him to have some serious speed on the run. If he doesn’t catch on the bike then he’ll need to come off within a minute to take the win, if Brownlee or Frodeno are out front.

2. Alistair Brownlee – a delayed start to the year for the Brit after he missed out racing at IM South Africa with a niggle. We saw a glimpse of how this format can suit him at the Canadian Open when he rode off the front with Sam Laidlow, but he pulled up on the run with stomach cramps. His form is an unknown but if he’s fit and ready to go then I see him seriously challenging for the win.

3. Magnus Ditlev – he will have a deficit out of the water but as the strongest rider in the field it shouldn’t be an issue to make his way through. He’s shown he can compete at the highest level of the middle distance, taking 2nd at the US Open and 3rd at the IM 70.3 World Championships. He’ll want to break up the field on the bike and give himself a buffer over some of the stronger runners.

4. Max Neumann – he came into the spotlight after an incredible performance in Kona and backed this up at IM Western Australia, falling one second short of breaking Alistair Brownlee’s course record. He came 8th at the Canadian Open, perhaps underperforming on the swim and bike but moved through the field with the 7th fastest run split. If he has invested the time to travel to Europe early then he will feature at the front of the race all day.

5. Jan Frodeno – the return was all set to happen in California until illness struck and it was put on hold. Frodeno will step back into racing at the highest level, something he was initially trying to avoid. He will be looking to finish his first race since the Collins Cup in 2021. He looked like he hadn’t missed a beat at Challenge Roth, swimming lead pack and breaking away on the bike, until his Achilles gave way. He is an all time great but he will have a big target on his back. Can he return in style?

Challengers

6. Frederic Funk – after a breakthrough year in 2021, winning three races, we saw Funk compete at the top level in 2022. He didn’t disappoint taking 5th at the Canadian Open and IM 70.3 World Championships. At both these races he swam well and biked strong. He was only outridden by Magnus Ditlev in St George. He is weakest on the run but that will have been a focus over the winter. If his run has improved then we could see him take another leap.

7. Jason West – he has impressed in 2023 with a strong start to the season, winning at Clash Miami, St Anthony’s and coming within 12 seconds of winning in Oceanside. He has been swimming well and riding strong, but his run has been on a different level. He will likely get dropped on the bike but expect to see him flying through the field on the run. Has he damaged his chances of challenging for the podium in Ibiza by racing St Anthony’s?

8. Tom Bishop – the Brit has started the season in fine form, coming 2nd at Clash Miami and claiming his first win at Challenge Puerto Varas. He is an elite swimmer and is quickly becoming one of the best cyclists in the sport. This combination will put him in a position to challenge for the top 5 on the run. It will come down to how hard he has had to work on the bike and what he has left to give on the run. He has talked about working on his top end speed so I’m excited to see him race in Ibiza.

9. Aaron Royle – he had a strong first year as a long course focused athlete, taking 3rd at the Canadian Open and top 10 finishes at the US Open and IM 70.3 World Championships. He opened his season at Challenge Gran Canaria where he faded on the run to take 3rd place. He could have the advantage over athletes who are racing for the first time this year.

10. Ben Kanute – coming off a brilliant end of season where he came 2nd at the IM 70.3 World Championships and took 3rd over his first full distance race at IM Arizona. After these performances he will always be in the discussion to challenge at the top. He started his season in Oceanside where he couldn’t match the speed speed of Leo Bergere, but still went on to finish 4th. He’ll need to swim well in Ibiza to challenge for the top spots.

Hopefuls

11. Daniel Baekkegard – after struggling in Kona, Baekkegard put down his best full distance performance at IM Israel, running 2:37 off the bike. Only a record setting performance by Patrick Lange could beat him on the day. He’s had a decent start to the season; 3rd at Clash Miami followed up by 5th at IM 70.3 Lanzarote a week later. I would’ve expected him to feature closer to the top in Lanzarote if it wasn’t for the transatlantic travel.

12. Florian Angert – coming off a strong 2022 season where he had top 5 finishes at the IM World Championships in St George and the PTO US Open. A penalty derailed his first Kona appearance where he was looking strong on the bike. He’s another front pack swimmer to think about and we saw him breakaway on the bike in Dallas, he will feature at the front of the race early on. He struggled in Gran Canaria recently, finishing 12th. He will need to be in better form to challenge for the top 10.

13. Patrick Lange – he only raced 4 times in 2022 but finished 2nd at Challenge Roth and ran a world record run split at IM Israel to take the win, posting a time of 2:30:31. Lange is stronger over the full distance and doesn’t have a strong record of the middle distance, only 2 wins in 23 races. He finished 5th in Gran Canaria, where he lost close to 5 minutes on the bike. The bike pace will be hot from the start and he could be out of contention before he starts the run.

14. Leon Chevalier – another athlete who is stronger over the full distance. I was surprised to see him on the start list for the European Open as I have heard him talk about preferring the more challenging races. But the desire to race the best and bid for the PTO points and prize money is too much to turn down. He may struggle in the swim but he is one of the strongest cyclists in the sport, will this be enough to bridge back up to challenge for the top spots?

15. Kyle Smith – he has made the transition back to short course after racing long course the last couple seasons. At the Canadian Open he was within touching distance of the leaders off the bike but lost 5 and a half minutes on the run to finish 9th. With some solid short course training under his belt we could see him perform better on the run and out perform that result.

16. Kristian Hogenhaug – someone I would consider more of a long course focused athlete but he won Challenge Salou last year and finished 6th at the US Open. He could set his race up well if he can come out the water near Magnus Ditlev. The bike is his strength and he may need to sacrifice his run legs to stick with Ditlev on the bike and rise through the field.

17. Miki Taagholt – he impressed at the IM 70.3 World Championships, finishing 6th after a strong swim-bike combination. He is weakest on the run but if he finds the right pack he could find himself far enough up the field that losing some time on the run isn’t too detrimental. His season got off to a false start in Oceanside after struggling with the cold temperatures. He shouldn’t have that issue in Ibiza.

18. Pieter Heemeryck – in a year where he DNF’d 5 of his 12 races, the PTO tour events were the high points. Two top 8 finishes shows what he can do over this distance. With the strength of swimmers in the field he’ll have more people to catch on the bike and the run.

19. Gregory Barnaby – he moved to long course racing in 2021 after racing short course pre-covid. He finished in the top 5 in 8 out of his 9 races in 2022 and finished the season at IM Israel where he ran 2:35 to take 3rd. He improved year on year from ’21 to ’22, will he do the same this year?

20. Rudy von Berg – coming off a strong win at IM Texas, securing his Nice slot. He had a great first half of the season last year, two 70.3 podiums and a win at IM France. But he lost his form in the second half of the year, finishing 20th at the US Open and in Kona. Racing any race 2 weeks after an IM is challenging, but the level of this race will make it even harder.

Long Shots

21. David McNamee – his only top 10 finish across seven races in 2022 came at the IM World Championships in St George. He’s already matched that in 2023 with 5th at Clash Miami. He showed his strong swim-bike combination but lost time on the run. The story will likely be the same in Ibiza.

22. Mathias Lyngsoe Petersen – has been focused on full distance over the last few seasons but still qualified for the IM 70.3 World Championships. A disappointing day there, finishing 31st, doesn’t bode well for Ibiza. He had an impressive performance at IM South Africa earlier in the year, posting the fastest run split. Lets see if this form carries over to the shorter distance.

23. Youri Keulen – comes onto the start list as an injury replacement for Justus Nieschlag. With Sam Laidlow withdrawing, Keulen becomes the youngest athlete on the start line. He got his first career win at IM 70.3 Switzerland last season but DNF at the IM 70.3 World Championship and was outside the top 30 at the Canadian Open. As a young athlete I would expect to see more improvement year on year. He has already raced twice this year, logging two top 8 finishes.

24. Bradley Weiss – coming off 2nd place at IM South Africa, achieving this result for the second year in a row. He finished 15th at the US Open, moving through the field with the 5th fastest run split of the day. The pace is going to be hot from the start and he will need to find a good pack in the water and on the road to keep in touch.

25. Cameron Wurf – added to the start list as a wildcard it will be interesting to see how Wurf performs. I have already called out the swimming strength on the start list and this will cause issues for Wurf. He has only raced one middle distance race over the last 4 years. He’ll go to work on the bike but could already be well out of contention.

26. Filipe Azevedo – he has already won more races this year than he did across his 10 races in 2022. Top 15 finishes at both the Canadian Open and IM 70.2 World Championships shows he could feature in the top half of the field. He can set up a good race with a strong swim and finding a good pack on the bike.

27. Ben Hoffman – not an athlete I expected to see on the start list. He showed he can still mix it up over the full distance, winning IM Texas at the start of last year and finishing 10th at the St George IM World Championships. He hasn’t won a middle distance race since 2015 but did podium at IM 70.3 Boulder in 2022.