Athletes are headed to Sardinia for the third instalment of the WTCS campaign. Alex Yee and Beth Potter are back in action after choosing not to race in Yokohama.
#1 Can GTB capitalise on the absent bike power?
With Sophie Coldwell and Taylor Knibb both opting not to race in Cagliari, the front group that broke away in Yokohama will be missing some serious bike power. Will this give Georgia Taylor-Brown the opportunity to close any deficit out of the water and join the front pack for the first time this season?
Taylor-Brown has had a slow start to the year as she builds towards the Paris Test Event where she needs a podium to qualify for the Olympics in 2024. She has been off the swim pace this year, losing 31 seconds in Abu Dhabi. However she showed some improvement in Yokohama where again she lost 31 seconds but over twice the distance. In both races this left her with a lot of work to do on the bike and both times the front pack worked together to build a significant lead over the chasers.
In both races Sophie Coldwell was a big part of the breakaway group and Taylor Knibb added to this in Yokohama. They are both excellent swimmers but with the likes of Summer Rappaport and Maya Kingma still racing the swim speed will still be hot from the gun. The key will be the opening stages of the bike. Will the remaining athletes from the Yokohama breakaway have the power to build and maintain a lead over the chasing GTB? Expect to see Kingma joined by Taylor Spivey, Kirsten Kasper, Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal and Beth Potter. Taylor-Brown is a stronger rider than all of the above on her day but if they can work together early then it will be a challenging task.
Even if she can make the front group she will still have to out run Beth Potter who was on fine form in Abu Dhabi and will come to Cagliari fresher than most athletes on the start list. This race is a good opportunity to Taylor-Brown to get her first podium of the year but the win will be a lot more challenging.
#2 Yee and Wilde set for their first battle of 2023
With twos races of the WTCS calendar ticked off, we are still yet to see a real battle between the two favourites for this year’s world title. A flat tyre derailed Wilde’s race in Abu Dhabi and Yee chose not to travel to race in Yokohama. Cagliari then should be the first time this season we get to evaluate them side by side.
Yee has consistently got the better of Wilde but Wilde showed he is already racing at a higher level than he was last season in Yokohama. It all started in the swim where he came out of the water only 16 seconds back from the leader. This meant he was able to quickly close down the gap on the bike and was at the front of the race on the first lap. He worked to push the pace on the bike but still a big group came in T2 together. Wilde then showed his run pedigree, breaking away from the field and going through the first 5k in 14:16. He was on pace for a 28:52 split before easing off over the final 2km.
The issue for Yee will be if Wilde comes out of the water with a lead and a strong group of riders around him. Wilde came so close to making the French-led break away in Abu Dhabi at the end of last season. With Dorrian Coninx, Leo Bergere, Tom Richard and Pierre Le Corre all on the start list there definitely isn’t a lack of firepower at the front of the swim.
I think Yee still has the beating of Wilde on the run but if Wilde comes off the bike with a 15+ seconds advantage then that could be enough for him to take the win.
#3 Potter vs Beaugrand
Beth Potter and Cassandre Beaugrand are the two best runners in short course triathlon. In 2022 they typically came off the bike together and Beaugrand regularly got the better of Potter on the run.
Potter was a late comer to the sport, switching from track distance running to take up triathlon. She has progressed quickly through the ranks and has showed continuous improvement across all three disciplines. This was on display in Abu Dhabi where she swam front pack, rode with the breakaway and then ran away from the field to take the win. Beaugrand still ran the fastest time of the day but after not making the breakaway the best she could manage was 6th.
Beaugrand is an excellent swimmer, as well as runner, but her weakness comes on the bike. This is the missing piece that would make her a threat to win every race. The podium places at both races this season have all come from athletes in the breakaway. This is how Potter won in Yokohama, making the breakaway and using her run to drop the field. I am interested to see if she will continue to make these breaks across the rest of the season. If not then we will continue to see these two run through the field together, chasing down the podium. Conversely, if Beaugrand can follow in Potter’s footsteps and improve on the bike, then we could see them battling it out for the win at the front of the race.
#4 Consistency the key for Spivey and Vilaca?
Taylor Spivey and Vasco Vilaca come to Cagliari as the highest ranked athletes on the start list and are the favourites to leave Sardinia leading the series. With some athletes choosing to focus their season on Olympic qualification, it opens the door for other athletes to challenge for the world title.
Vasco Vilaca is the series leader for the men, after backing up his 2nd in Abu Dhabi with 3rd in Yokohama. He has been elite on the run. He had the fastest run split in Yokohama and was only outran by Alex Yee in Abu Dhabi. Both races this season have come together on the bike and this has played into his hands. There will be opportunities to breakaway on the bike in Cagliari and we saw Jonathan Brownlee and Jumpei Furuya build a 30 second lead over the whole field last year. This could hinder Vilaca’s bid for a third consecutive podium if the break goes before he’s bridge up out of the swim.
Taylor Spivey is currently #2 in the series but with Sophie Coldwell opting not to race she is the favourite to move into the #1 spot. She couldn’t match Knibb and Tapia Vidal on the run in Yokohama and had to settle for 4th. She has enjoyed success this year by swimming just off the front and making the breakaway on the bike. With running mate Coldwell not racing, she’ll need to rally the troops to make another breakaway. Expect to see her look to Maya Kingma to push the pace on the bike. She tested positive for covid after the Yokohama race so we’ll have to see if she is firing on all cylinders in Cagliari.
#5 Tapia Vidal on the rise?
Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal has showed continuous improvement since racing her first WTCS race in Montreal last season. Apart from being lapped out of WTCS Hamburg, she has improved on her position in every WTCS race. Can she go one better in Cagliari?
She was seriously impressive in Yokohama, swimming just off the front group and gained 6 valuable seconds in transition which enabled her to make the breakaway of 7 athletes. She was able to stick with the various attacks thrown by Taylor Knibb and came into T2 with the group. No one could match the pace of Sophie Coldwell and it looked like Taylor Knibb was going to take 2nd as she built a lead of 13 seconds over Tapia Vidal. However Tapia Vidal ran the fastest time over the closing 5k to close this gap and run through to take 2nd.
She has shown she is a strong all round athlete that can swim, bike and run with the best in the field. She was relatively unknown coming into Yokohama but that will have all changed. Athletes will be wary to let her sit in on the bike given the run she put down to take 2nd. I’m excited to see how she performs over the rest of the season.
Triathlon Insights 
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