The first full distance championship race of the season is taking place at Challenge Roth on the 25th June. The women’s start list features 6 of the top 16 PTO ranked athletes including previous winners Anne Haug and Daniela Ryf.

Challenge Roth is a platinum tier race, with a SOF of 89.35. I expect to see the winner earn around 95 PTO points depending on the winning margin.

I have ranked my top 10 athletes from the start list, splitting them into three tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athletes I see in the middle of the field that could break into the top 10
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Anne Haug – she comes to Roth as the two time defending champion looking for a third straight title. She has been the best athlete so far this season with three straight wins, including running to victory at the European Open. Her run was incredible that day, putting close to 90 seconds into the whole field. However her bike was also seriously impressive, she only lost 3 seconds the Paula Findlay, perhaps the second best middle distance cyclist in the sport. Haug’s competitors could have a hard time dropping her if she transfers this to the full distance. She is the best runner in the field and has posted two of the fastest ever marathon splits in triathlon at this race, 2:43 in 2021 and 2:46 in 2022. Noting that 2021 was off a slightly shortened bike leg. She will be up against two of the other best runners in the sport in Philipp and Sodaro. I hope we get to see these three running together and battling it out for the win. She is my pick to take the win. She has been on top form all year and has raced exceptionally well in Roth the last two seasons.

2. Laura Philipp – last seasons Ironman world title bid was derailed early into the bike, getting hit with a 5 minute drafting penalty. She rallied to come home in 4th, but she would’ve fancied her chances up against Sodaro, having beaten her in Hamburg earlier in the season. She will be looking for redemption this year. She kicked off her season with a dominant performance at IM South Africa where she benefitted from a shortened swim and went on to win by 11 minutes. It hasn’t all been smooth sailing since then. She picked up an illness, meaning she had to pull out of the European Open. She recovered to race IM 70.3 Kraichgau two weeks later and won a close battle with Lucy Charles-Barclay and Ellie Salthouse. She came close to breaking the full distance world record time in Hamburg last year so could be hoping to take it in Roth this year. I think she’ll get the better of Sodaro but not quite enough to pip Haug of her third title.

3. Chelsea Sodaro – she comes to Roth as the reining Ironman World Champion. In Kona she put herself in a position to challenge for the win on the swim and bike. She swam and biked with Lisa Norden, could we see this duo work together again in Roth? Sodaro came off the bike in 4th, 3 minutes back. She proceeded to outrun the entire field by 6 minutes and win by close to 8 minutes. She has shown she can beat every athlete on this start list but she’ll have a big target on her back. Her competitors will be wary of carrying her towards the front of the race on the bike. She was in fine form in Oceanside, posting a blistering 1:16 run split which was overshadowed by Tamara Jewett’s 1:13 split to take the win. She was one of the favourites coming into Ibiza but illness in the lead up meant she finished with a DNF. Can she get her first win since Kona in Roth? It feels odd to put the Ironman World Champion in third but I think Haug and Philipp will be firing on all cylinders racing in their home country.

4. Daniela Ryf – like Sodaro, she struggled with illness in Ibiza resulting in a DNF. However she bounced back in impressive fashion at IM 70.3 Switzerland, beating #1 PTO ranked athlete Ashleigh Gentle. She won the race on the bike, putting over 6 minutes into Gentle. However what caught my eye is that she came out of the water ahead of Gentle, just. In Kona last year she lost 3 minutes to eventual winner Sodaro. If she can close this gap in Roth she won’t have to work as hard on the bike. Given the calibre of runners on the start list, she’ll need a lead off the bike to stand a chance of winning. Her fastest marathon split is 2:56:51, so even coming off the bike with a 10 minute lead might not be enough! Ryf will always have the chance of dominating a race and taking the win. However I think it will come down to the run where she doesn’t have the same firepower as the athletes ranked above her.

Challengers

5. Lisa Norden – she is kicking off her season at Roth after withdrawing from the European Open with an injury. She was very consistent at the championship races last season; 6th at St George World Championships and 5th at both the US Open and in Kona. As I have already mentioned she spent a lot of time with Chelsea Sodaro in the race in Kona, swimming and riding together for the majority of the race. After Sodaro put 20 minutes into her on the run she may be less willing to work together. Despist her short course background the run is her weakest discipline. She is yet to break the 3 hour barrier for the marathon but did run her fastest split in Kona, 3:12:40. I expect her to improve on this time in Roth.

6. Fenella Langridge – she has enjoyed success at Roth, podiuming both times she has raced (2021 and 2022). She’ll hope for a repeat of last year where she led out of the water and came off the bike in the lead. With the extra firepower on the bike of Ryf, Philipp and Sodaro, she would do well to hold them off. She impressed in Kona by bridging across to Lucy Charles-Barclay on the bike and the pair worked together until they were caught by Ryf around the 170k mark. With no one to work with at the front of the race it will be easier for the chasers to reel her in. She is weakest on the run and narrowly missed out dipping under the 3 hour mark at Roth last year, finishing in 3:00:36. If she can take a couple more minute off this time then we could see her creep into the top 5 or challenge for the podium.

Hopefuls

7. Margie Santimaria – she’s coming off a strong performance at Challenge Geraardsbergen, where she had the fastest split across all three disciplines. This will only be her second full distance race in the last 4 years, the other being IM Cozumel at the end of last season where she finished 9th. She is a fairly consistent all round athlete, with her bike ranking as the weakest. She still gaining experience over the full distance and will be up against a stellar field.

8. Elisabetta Corridori – she is more experienced over the full distance than her Italian country mate ranked above her and she will be looking to redeem her DNF at Roth from last season. She kicked off her year with a podium at IM 70.3 Lanzarote but since then she has been bested by Santimaria in Gran Canaria and the Challenge Championship. Both her podiums from the last two seasons have come in Lanzarote so she potentially performs best over a more challenging course. She won’t get that in Roth as it is one of the fastest courses around.

9. Magda Nieuwoudt – she comes to Roth after winning back to back races at Challenge Frejus and Challenge Gunsan, noting that the fields were relatively weak with both SOF’s below 32. She finished 6th at Challenge Roth last season with a solid all round performance. Given the increased strength of field she would do extremely well to match that performance.

10. Lina-Kristin Schink – she is an experienced full distance athlete with three podiums at Challenge Almere over her career. She is strongest on the bike and will hope to limit damage during the swim. She last raced Challenge Roth back in 2019 where she finished 9th. It will be interesting to see if she can match or better that result in 2023.