The first full distance championship race of the season is taking place at Challenge Roth on the 25th June. The men’s start list features 7 of the top 20 PTO ranked athletes including previous winners Magnus Ditlev and Patrick Lange.

Challenge Roth is a platinum tier race, with a SOF of 89.81. I expect to see the winner earn around 95 PTO points depending on the winning margin.

I have ranked my top 10 athletes from the start list, splitting them into three tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athlete I see in the middle of the field that could break into the top 10
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Magnus Ditlev – he comes to Roth as the reigning champion and the highest ranked athlete on the start list. He impressed at this race last season, coming within 9 seconds of Jan Frodeno’s course record in only his second full distance race. In the process he broke the bike course record, riding 4:01:56 and out riding Patrick Lange by 14 minutes. He’ll have a deficit to make up out of the water, expect to see Laidlow, Kanute and Baekkegard leading out the swim. It took him just over 20k of riding to close the near 2 minute deficit he had out of the water in 2021. In Kona it took him closer to 80k to chase down Laidlow, so he may choose to measure his effort rather than put in a huge surge to close earlier. However he’ll want to avoid towing too many athletes to the front of the race. I think Ditlev has the edge over Laidlow on the run but he’ll want an advantage over Lange, Kanute and Baekkegard. I think he’ll put time into each of them and have enough of a buffer to take the win.

2. Sam Laidlow – after his breakthrough performance in Kona he now comes into every race as one of the favourites. He backed this up in his first race of the season, taking the win at Challenge Gran Canaria. However since then it hasn’t been smooth sailing. He withdrew from the European Open due to personal reasons and when racing 2 weeks later at IM Lanzarote he was struggling with illness which resulted in a DNF. He has been battling the same illness since Lanzarote which turned out to be a liver infection. He has his sights set on returning to racing in Roth so lets hope he is as close to 100% as possible. He is the best swimmer in the field but expect to see him joined by Kanute and Baekkegard. In Kona he put in a surge early to catch Max Neumann and breakaway from the field, will we see him go solo in Roth? He has shown he can outride everyone in the field but there are still question marks around his run. I’m giving Ditlev the edge over him but I expect him to get the better of the rest of the field.

Challengers

3. Patrick Lange – he was 2nd at this race last season but finished behind 5 of the names on this list in Kona. He’s raced twice so far this year, coming 5th at Challenge Gran Canaria and 2nd at IM 70.3 Kraichgau. In both races he lost time on the bike and couldn’t run through to challenge for the win. Historically he has been weaker over the middle distance so we can’t read too much into those performances. He also missed the European Open through illness which would’ve been a good opportunity to see him stack up against many of the athletes on this start list. He is the best full distance runner in the field and will be looking to run in the low 2:30s. However given the deficit he had off the bike last year even sub 2:30 might not be enough. It will be interesting to see if the new approach to on-course motorbikes improves the fairness of the race and whether Lange can reduce his deficit. It was a tough decision to make but I couldn’t put him in the tier above given the time he could lose on the bike. He can definitely run onto the podium but I think the win could be gone by the time his secret running shoes are on.

4. Daniel Baekkegard – he had a disappointing performance in Kona where he struggled with back problems on the bike, finishing with a DNF. However he bounced back at IM Israel 6 weeks later taking 2nd behind Lange. He put 6 and a half minutes into Lange on the bike but was outrun by 7 minutes, despite running a 2:37. He will have more company on the bike with the likes of Kanute so this gap could be bigger in Roth. He has raced three times so far this season and he impressed on the run at the European Open. He recovered from a below average bike performance to be one of only 4 athletes to record a sub-60 minute run split. I can see him spending a lot of time with Ben Kanute and I’m giving him the edge with his extra full distance experience.

5. Ben Kanute – he finished his season in style last year, taking 2nd at the IM 70.3 World Championships and making the podium in his first full distance race at IM Arizona. He secured his world championship slot but due to the unusual timing of Nice this year he has deferred to Kona in 2024. This means Roth is his key full distance race of the year before he focuses back on the middle distance. He kicked off his season in Oceanside where he had a solid all round performance to take 4th. He followed this up with 8th at the European Open where Baekkegard pipped him in the closing stages of the run. Kanute is one the best swimmers in the field and he’ll be at the front of the race from the gun. He’ll have the opportunity to go with Laidlow on the bike and he should be more confident in his ironman bike legs after his performance in Arizona.

6. Joe Skipper – he has had a rough start to the season with a DNF at IM Texas and 22nd at the World Triathlon Long Course Championships. He had a pre-Roth hit out at Challenge Geraardsbergen where he came 3rd. However he lost 3:31 in the swim, extrapolating this over the full distance would be a deficit of over 7 minutes. In Kona he only lost 4:40 but the swim pace wasn’t particularly hot given the size of group that came out together. On his day Skipper is one of the best cyclists and runners over the full distance. With his current form it’s hard to see him challenging for the win but if he’s feeling good on the day I could see him on the podium.

Hopefuls

7. Pieter Heemeryk – he’s on a good run of form after coming 4th at the Challenge Championship and 2nd at IM Hamburg. Adding Hamburg to his top 8 finishes at the PTO Tour events last year means he has moved up to #11 in the PTO rankings. He put in a strong all round performance in Hamburg where he swam and biked with the front. It may be a step too far to repeat this in Roth. He has impressed on the run so far this season and posted a 2:37 in Hamburg, noting this was off a slightly shortened bike course. He was a late addition to the Roth start list and he will have only had three weeks to recover from Hamburg, where it was close battle with 2nd to 4th finishing within 40 seconds of each other. Last season he DNF’d at three full distance races so I am slightly concerned how he will deal with the fatigue. He has shown he can swim, ride and run incredibly well over the full distance so on his day he could challenge for the top 5.

8. Robert Wilkoweicki – he got redemption for his 2022 DNF at IM Texas with a great all-round performance where he came within 13 seconds of taking the win. He has demonstrated his strength over each discipline and will look to get on the back of the lead pack in the water. He’s coming off a podium at IM 70.3 Warsaw where he lost significant time on the bike. He will try and work with Kanute and Baekkegard if they cannot hang with Laidlow. I think all the top 5 will be running sub-2:40 so he’ll need a career best run to be able to challenge them.

9. Sebastian Kienle – the 2018 champion and two time runner up returns to Roth for the last time. After finishing outside the top 10 at the IM St George World Championships and both PTO Tour events, he battled his was to 6th in Kona. His farewell tour has been a fairly bumpy ride with multiple penalties derailing races. However he did claim his first win since 2019 at Zarauzko Triathlon. Roth will be a challenging task, Kienle will be coming out of the water behind Ditlev and will struggling to chase him down on the bike. He should have Skipper for company during the swim and I can imagine the pair of them working their way through the field, trying to limit damage to the front.

10. Bradley Weiss – he kicked off his year with 2nd at IM South Africa but struggled at the European Open, finishing in 17th. He’ll likely swim in a pack with Mignon and Ditlev. He doesn’t have the power to ride with Ditlev but could work with Mignon to limit the damage. He crashed in Kona last year but recovered to run a 2:48, seriously impressive given the circumstances. To challenge further up the field he’ll need to run a personal best off the bike, getting as close to sub-2:40 as possible.