We are half way through the 2023 season. 6 months down, 6 months to go. The second 6 months is the business end of the season with the IM and IM 70.3 World Championships and the US and Asia Opens on the long course circuit. Olympic qualification is on the line for the short course athletes with the Test Event and the Grand Final. With the schedule of championship races not starting until August, what have I got my eye on in July?

Men’s IM WC Qualification Deadline

Heading into July 49 men have qualified for the Ironman World Championships in Nice. There are two more opportunities to secure a slot, the first is IM Switzerland on 9th July and the last chance is IM Lake Placid on 23rd July. Both races have two slots. Many of the big names already have their slots but here is a look at the top 5 ranked athletes who are chasing Nice qualification.

Sam Long (PTO #6) – not a name I was considering for this list as he was widely expected to secure qualification at IM Coeur d’Alene. However three punctures and a lack of disc wheels from the bike support meant to ended up with a DNF. Up until Coeur d’Alene he had been on a roll, winning back to back to back IM 70.3 races. Will he shake up his schedule to race IM Lake Placid and secure qualification? This could impact his chances of challenging for the win at the US Open.

Florian Angert (PTO #15) – he has really struggled this year, finishing outside the top 10 at all three races he has done. It would be a shock for him not to make it considering he came 5th and 12th at the St George and Kona world championships respectively. He isn’t on the start list for Switzerland so could be stringing races together in America.

Alistiar Brownlee (PTO #22) – it has been another difficult season for Brownlee. He has had his name down on four different IM start lists but hasn’t made it to any of them. He was looking strong on the bike at the European Open but set off at an unsustainable pace on the run which resulted in a blow up and falling to 6th. The big question is can he even make to a start line let alone hold it together to secure a slot? He is on the start list for Switzerland, will this be 5th time lucky for the Brit?

David Mcnamee (PTO #36) – I’m assuming the two time world championship podium finisher is aiming to race in Nice considering he has raced every world championship since 2015. However so far he has made no effort to qualify. He’s not down to race at IM Switzerland so will we see him in Lake Placid?

Josh Amberger (PTO #42) – he is down to race IM 70.3 Andorra on 2nd July and is currently not on the IM Switzerland start list. I assume he’ll be travelling to the US with partner Ashleigh Gentle for the US Open so a stop off in Lake Placid on the way is an option is he is still pursuing qualification. He secured his slot at the last chance in 2022 at IM Mont Tremblant, will we see him do the same in 2023?

Note that I have excluded athletes that haven’t raced an ironman before. I have also excluded Lionel Sanders and Sebastian Kienle as to my knowledge they are not pursuing qualification.

Can Team GB be stopped?

Four races into the WTCS season and all the women’s races have been won by a GB athlete. Beth Potter has taken both sprint distance wins while Sophie Coldwell and Georgia Taylor-Brown have split the Olympic distance wins. On the men’s side Alex Yee has raced twice and won twice, over both the sprint and Olympic distances. How long will the streak continue?

Over the last year of racing women’s WTCS wins have been shared between Flora Duffy and team GB. Duffy is still dealing with a knee injury which has to make the British women favourites to continue on winning. Cassandre Beaugrand was the last athlete not from Britain or named Duffy to win a WTCS race, back in June 2022 in Leeds. She has typically performed best over the shorter distances with both her podiums from last year coming in the sprint and super sprint events.

The races in July are both across the shorter distances with the super sprint in Hamburg and a sprint distance in Sunderland. This could make Beaugrand the biggest threat to the British women. However I still expect Potter to be the favourite to take the win. Like Beaugrand, she has excelled over the shorter distances and got her first WTCS podium at the super sprint event last year. Georgia Taylor-Brown won that event so will still fancy her chances. Potter will always be the favourite if it comes down to the run but she is the most likely to not make the front pack out of the British trio.

Alex Yee is undefeated so far in the 2023 season. In both races he has had another gear to go to on the run and has come out on top both times. Hayden Wilde went toe to toe with him in Cagliari but Yee had the goods to take the win. Unless there is a situation where Yee and Wilde don’t catch the front of the race on the bike then Wilde is the key challenger. The only races Yee lost last season was when he came into T2 with too big of a deficit to close on the run. The men’s racing is missing Vincent Luis who would swim and bike hard to get separation. He was the driving force in Bermuda and Abu Dhabi where there was a breakaway. The other French athletes haven’t been able to make up for his absence. Therefore if the current trend of the whole race coming together on the bike continues, Yee is the firm favourite to win every race.

I’ll be interested to see if athletes try and work better together to establish an advantage over Yee and Wilde. This could be harder to implement at the events in July but we could see this at the test event. It’s not as easy to put time into Yee and Wilde as it used to be. They have both improved their swimming and have had career best swims in 2023. They both came out of the water 15s down at WTCS Cagliari which is the smallest deficit they have both ever had over an Olympic distance.

I pick my US Open Wildcards

A new location and time of year for the US Open. Athletes will be heading to Milwaukee, Wisconsin to battle it out on the 4-5th August. The top 30 ranked athletes are given the opportunity to race and I am assuming there will be the same four wildcards as the European Open. Who could fill the four wildcard spots?

The big question for the men is whether any short course athletes put their hand up given the Paris Test Event is only two weeks later. There are four athletes from the short course circuit that spring to mind.

• Marten van Reil has expressed an interest on social media and currently holds the fastest 70.3 time. He’s still building back from injury but would be a threat to take the win.
• Hayden Wilde has been a bit more coy but has been seen on his TT bike and has spoken about how supportive Canyon have been with his long course ambitions.
• Leo Bergere impressed in his win at IM 70.3 Oceanside and would be one of the favourites to take the win.
• Pierre Le Corre has won his last three middle distance races and has moved up to 46th in the PTO rankings. He would fancy his chances against the long course athletes.

That would be an exciting combination of athletes to add to the race but I doubt they will all be interested. For the French athletes I imagine the French federation not being particularly pleased if they chose to race in the US two weeks before the big show, even if it is just the test event. For Hayden Wilde, will he really fly to the US straight after Sunderland and then back to Europe to race the Olympic Test Event? I’m not so sure. Therefore I am only selecting van Reil for a wildcard.

I am expecting Jan Frodeno to move into the top 30 after racing IM 70.3 Andorra so he won’t need a wildcard slot. Looking outside of the short course pool, here are three names from the long course circuit.

• Justus Nieschlag impressed at IM 70.3 Lanzarote, earning a wildcard slot to the European Open. However he had to withdraw due to injury. I’d like to see him given another chance.
• Robert Wilkowiecki came 2nd at IM Texas and 3rd at IM 70.3 Warsaw. He is a solid all round athlete that could have an impact on the race if given the chance.
• Antonio Benito Lopez kicked off his season with a win at IM 70.3 Pucon and ran through to 4th at Challenge Gran Canaria. He followed that up with 2nd at the WT Long Distance Championships. He is a strong swimmer and superb runner, which could see him challenge for the top 10 at a PTO event.

On the women’s side I can’t see any short course athletes, who aren’t already ranked in the top 30, making the call to race. The only one who comes to mind is Vittoria Lopes who came 7th at the Canadian Open last season. However she may choose to keep her focus on short course. Therefore I am going to focus on athletes from the long course circuit.

• Jeanni Metzler kicked off her season with a bang winning IM 70.3 St George and backed this up with two more podiums. She has shown she can challenge for the win at this level of event so should be a shoe in for a wildcard.
• Lucy Byram struggled with illness at the European Open and she didn’t get to show her early season form in full effect. I’m keen to give her another shot as a wildcard given she has dropped out of the top 30.
• Luisa Baptista is just outside the top 30 so could get a rolldown slot. She impressed at the European Open, posting the 5th fastest run to move through the field to 8th.
• Anne Reischmann rode the fastest bike split of the day at the European Open and finished in the top half of the field. Since Ibiza she won at Challenge Gdansk and podiumed at IM 70.3 Switzerland.