A new look US Open is the second stop on the 2023 PTO Tour. The European Open was the best race of the season so far so I am excited to see many of the same athletes battle it out again in Milwaukee.

The start list includes 11 of the top 20 ranked athletes and has a SOF of 90.77.

I have ranked the start list top to bottom, splitting the athletes into five tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athletes I see breaking the top 10
• Mid-Pack – athletes I see finishing in the middle of the field
• Bottom Half – athletes I expect to finish in the bottom half of the field
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Several athletes on the start list have been rumoured to not be racing. These are marked with *.

Contenders

1. Taylor Knibb – since making the move to juggle short and long course triathlon she has podiumed in all 6 of her long course races, winning three of them. In her last 3 races she has outrode the field by an average of 5 minutes. Those performances earned her a professional cycling contract with Trek and she made her debut in June, placing 4th at the US Time Trial National Championships. She is the best swimmer in the field, being the only person who could hang with Lucy Charles-Barclay at last years US Open, and she is on her own level on the bike. She will need an advantage on the run but she comes to Milwaukee in much better run form than last year. Gentle ran 8 minutes into her at last years US Open however she had barely run in the lead up. The build up to Milwaukee has been much smoother as she has ticked off WTCS races in Yokohama and Montreal and took the win at IM 70.3 Boulder. Gentle and Knibb have only raced each other at long course one other time, IM 70.3 Oceanside at the start of the 2022 season. It’s hard to read too much into an early season race but Gentle only outran Knibb by just over a minute. I think any gap over 3 minutes then Knibb should have enough on the run to take the win. 

2. Ashleigh Gentle – she comes to Milwaukee as the highest place finisher from the European Open and the top ranked athlete. She didn’t have an ideal lead in to the race in Ibiza, dealing with illness, but still ran through the 2nd. However this was the first PTO Open race she didn’t win or have the fastest run at. She has raced twice since; 2nd at IM 70.3 Switzerland and a win at IM 70.3 Andorra. She lost 6 minutes on the bike in Switzerland to Daniela Ryf but rode 6 minutes into Emma Pallant-Browne in Andorra. She will lose a chunky amount of time to Knibb on the bike but I expect her to ride with the main chase group as she did in Ibiza. She isn’t as strong on the bike as Findlay and with a number of strong bikers falling off the start list staying in this group could be harder than first thought. Coming onto the run the question will be how big is the deficit to Knibb. Knibb will be on better form than the US Open last year so could be hard to chase down. Gentle will have the edge over her other key competitors if she comes off the bike with them or within a minute.

Challengers

3. Paula Findlay – an altitude block in Flagstaff paid dividends with her winning St Anthonys triathlon and coming 5th at the European Open. She rode the second fastest bike split of the day to come into T2 in 2nd. She couldn’t match Gentle or Haug who ran through the field to take the first two podium positions. She was caught halfway by Emma Pallant-Browne but was able to hold off the charging Tamara Jewett to keep 5th. Coming to the US Open I think she would’ve preferred a more challenging bike course, with the course in Milwaukee looking fairly flat. At the Canadian Open she was able to put time into the field on the bike and finished 2nd. If packs form on the bike then the better runners will come into T2 fresher which is detrimental for Findlay. She is a solid runner but isn’t on the same level as Gentle. I could see her looking to breakaway from the main chase pack and gain an advantage into T2.

4. Chelsea Sodaro* – it has been a bumpy ride since her strong start to the season at IM 70.3 Oceanside. She finished with DNF’s at the European Open and Challenge Roth, both races she was expected to challenge for the win at. She swam really well at Roth coming out of the water with Lisa Norden and she was looking like she was favourite to take 2nd until it all fell apart 30km into the run. Looking back to Ibiza, she came out of the water around 20 seconds down from the likes of Gentle and Findlay. If she can close this gap in Milwaukee then she’ll set herself up for a great day. I think she has the advantage over Findlay and Philipp when they get to the run so if she can stay in that pack on the bike she will be in the driving seat to make the podium. Gentle has shown she is on a different level at this distance but I would love to see them come off the bike together and test whether Sodaro can hang on.

5. Tamara Jewett – she is one of the best runners in the field along with Gentle. She has improved on the swim and bike but still found herself with a chunky deficit to make up coming into T2 in Ibiza. She went to work on the run, recording the second fastest run split and running up from 14th to 6th. She will always be a threat on the run and can expect to run 3-4 minutes in to some of the athletes that will come off the bike ahead of her. This is her first full season as a full time professional and we are already seeing the benefits. I don’t think she can win at this level yet but could be a factor next year, as the swim and bike develops.

6. India Lee – she is having a career year so far this season. She backed up her strong 7th at the European Open with a win at the Challenge Championships. She rode the entire bike leg with one gear, Samorin is probably the best race for this to happen at but it is impressive nevertheless. Her swim and bike combo will put her in a position to challenge for the top 5. I expect to see her in a chase pack of swimmers with the likes of Holly Lawrence. She has been strong on the bike all year and will be able to hang with Findlay when she catches. She admitted to going out too hard on the run in Ibiza so could improve on that performance with a better paced effort.  

7. Kat Matthews – she made a stunning return to racing earlier this year, podiuming at IM 70.3 Oceanside and then winning IM Texas, running a 2:49 in the process. She opted to race the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships instead of the European Open but fatigue paired with illness resulted in a DNF. This will be her second PTO Tour event, the first being the US Open in 2022 where she ran the 4th fastest split of the day to run into the top 10. Her 4th at IM 70.3 worlds in 2021 shows she can mix it up over the middle distance but she may have preferred a more challenging course than the one in Milwaukee. 

8. Holly Lawrence – coming into this season she was seen as one of the most consistent athletes at the middle distance, however this year she’s been lacking that consistency. She followed up 4th at IM 70.3 Oceanside with 10th at the European Open, her lowest finish at any PTO Tour event. She raced in her new base town of Boulder, deciding to train through the race and took 2nd behind Taylor Knibb. It doesn’t paint a full picture if Lawrence wasn’t tapered going into the race but Knibb rode 5 minutes into her, going on a win by 8 minutes. 

Hopefuls

9. Ellie Salthouse – she will have been disappointed with her performance in Ibiza after finishing 19th. She would’ve expected to perform better over every discipline. However she recovered to race two weeks later at IM 70.3 Kraichgau where she went toe to toe with Laura Philipp and Lucy Charles-Barclay, coming away with 3rd. This performance gave a glimpse of what she is capable of and shows she can compete at the front of the race. Ibiza was the third championship race in a row that she hasn’t made the top 10. If we are going on her last performance then she looks like a good bet to make the top 10 in Milwaukee.

10. Marjolaine Pierre – she looked seriously impressive at the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships, breaking away on the bike and going solo for nearly the entire race. Off the back of this performance she looked like one of the favourites heading into the Challenge Championships but the extra fatigue built up in Ibiza meant she wasn’t able to feature at the front of the race. She had a great swim in Ibiza but couldn’t match this in Samorin. If she can set herself up with another good swim at the US Open then she could be a threat on the bike and run. 

11. Jeanni Metzler – she has made a smooth return to racing, podiuming at all three north American 70.3’s she has raced. This will be the first test back at the championship level. She podiumed at the IM 70.3 world championships back in 2021 so has shown she can beat a lot of the women on the start list. She is a solid all round athlete and should come out of the water with India Lee and Holly Lawrence. If she can stay with this pair on the bike then she’ll be in a strong position to challenge on the run.

12. Skye Moench – since her 6th place finish at the 2021 IM 70.3 world championships her focus has been on the full distance, with a top 5 finished in St George and top 10 in Kona. She’s raced two middle distance races so far this year with a podium at IM 70.3 St George and 5th at Chattanooga. She made the trip to Germany to race IM Frankfurt and was in the lead until 33k where she was caught by Sarah True. It was the second IM in a row where True has chased her down on the run. With the success Moench has had in the past over the middle distance I am interested to see how see performs over 100k after focusing on the full distance.

13. Lucy Byram – she kicked off the year with back to back wins in Miami and Puerto Varas but didn’t get to show her early season form in Ibiza, where she suffered with illness. She recovered to finish 6th at the Challenge Championships and won her third race of the season at Challenge Wales. She has shown she can win silver tier race and I am interested to see how she performs at full fitness at a championship level race. She is a solid all round athlete with her strength being the bike. If she can find a good pack in the water then she could be in for a strong performance.

Mid-Pack

14. Anne Reischmann – she kicked off her season at the European Open, where she rode the fastest bike split of the day to overcome her swimming weakness and took 13th overall with a solid run. These races will always be difficult for her to challenge for the top 5 due to the elite swimming at the front of the field. She will be on the back foot from the gun and need to ride through the field to set up a good performance.

15. Jocelyn McCauley – she made returning from surgery look straightforward with a podium finish at IM Texas behind two athletes on this start list, Kat Matthews and Maja Stage Nielsen. She made the call to race two weeks later at the European Open and came away with 18th. She swam and rode well, coming into T2 in 9th with the main chase pack and setting the 4th fastest bike split. However the fatigue caught up with her on the run and she fell back to 18th, running the second slowest time of the day. She showed what she can do over this distance last year with 7th at the US Open. On that day she matched her 8th fastest bike split with the 8th fastest run. She’ll be coming to Milwaukee with fresh legs and will be expecting a better result.

16. Maja Stage Nielsen – she impressed at IM Texas, swimming and biking well and just missing out on a 3 hour marathon split, but still ran over a 5 minute PB. However she struggled two weeks later at the European Open. After swimming with Jocelyn McCauley in Texas, she lost 2:41 to her over the shorter swim. It will always be difficult at championship level races coming out of the water towards the back of the race. She will need to set herself up with a better swim to get in a good pack on the road. She should be able to outperform her 21st place finish, especially coming to Milwaukee better rested. 

17. Danielle Lewis – she’s had a great year so far, securing her Kona slot at IM Texas and following that up with podiums at IM 70.3 St George and IM 70.3 Chattanooga. The US Open will be a few steps up from these races and she will be on the back foot from the gun. She could lose around 6 minutes in the water which will make it difficult to feature especially when packs form on the road. She has posted some of the fastest bike and run splits in her races this year and could capitalise on pacing her effort as athletes in packs up the road get caught up in the race dynamics and blow up.  

18. Jackie Hering – after struggling with health issues at the start of the year she returned to racing at IM 70.3 St George, finishing 5th and posting the 2nd fastest run split. She followed this up with 6th at IM 70.3 Chattanooga with a better all round performance against a stronger field. She wasn’t able to crack the top 10 at the PTO Tour last year but finished 7th at the IM 70.3 world championships. She ran the 3rd fastest split that day and will need to be in similar form to break the top 10 in Milwaukee.

19. Rebecca Clarke – she is one of the best swimmers in the field and I expect her follow Lauren Brandon in the water with Taylor Knibb in tow. At the European Open she swam and rode really well, coming into T2 with the chase pack. However she suffered on the run, running the 20th fastest split and falling down to finish 17th. There was just over a minute between 12th and 17th so a small improvement on the run would move her up the rankings significantly.

Bottom Half

20. Daniela Kleiser – she is in the midst of her most successful season with four podiums already secured. What’s more impressive is that she has run the fastest split in all five of her races this year, including outrunning Ashleigh Gentle and Emma Pallant-Browne by 2 minute at IM 70.3 Andorra. However she will be on the back foot from the gun in Milwaukee. Her smallest deficit out of the water so far this year has been 5 minutes and the largest has been over 9 minutes. Given the way the bike normally goes on the PTO Tour, athletes ahead will push too hard so she’ll be in with a chance of chasing people down, it just depends how big that swim deficit ends up being. For reference Anne Reischmann was the second to last athlete out of the water at the European Open and Kleiser lost 4 minutes to her at a race earlier this year.

21. Haley Chura – she comes to Milwaukee on the back of two consecutive podiums at Challenge Puerto Varas and IM Coeur d’Alene. In Coeur d’Alene she was in the lead for the first seven hours but was caught by Jodie Robertson 18km into the run. She struggled on the run, logging a time 15 minutes slower than her split in 2021. She will be towards the front of the swim but will need to work hard to stick with a strong group on the road. She has experience racing this shorter distance with top 5 finishes at Clash Miami and Clash Daytona.

22. Giorgia Priarone – middle distance focused athlete who came 7th at World Triathlon Long Distance Championships, running the second fastest split of the day. She’s fresh off a win at IM 70.3 Maine but will have less than a week’s recovery time. She is a solid bike-runner but will lose in the region of 3-4 minutes in the swim. As with many of the weaker swimmers, this amount of time will be difficult to make up unless you find a good group on the road.

23. Lesley Smith – she’s fresh off her first podium of the year at IM 70.3 Oregon, where she had a solid all round performance to take 2nd. She shouldn’t lose as much time in the water as Reischmann and Lewis so will have opportunities to ride with them when they catch on the bike. She will get stronger throughout the race and the key will be to conserve energy for a fast run split to move through the field.

24. Lauren Brandon – she is one of the best swimmers in the sport and nearly always leads out the race. I expect her to lead out Taylor Knibb, as she did in Boulder, and could be joined by Rebecca Clarke. She is a full distance focused athlete but has raced three 70.3s so far this year. Most recently at Boulder where she struggled on the run, falling to 8th. The run is her weakest discipline but her swim will put her in the position to find a good pack on the road.

25. Jodie Robertson – she is a full distance focused athlete and hasn’t raced a middle distance since 2021. She’s coming off a DNF at IM Lake Placid where she struggled with mechanical issues on the bike. However prior to that she won IM Coeur d’Alene, outriding the field and running through the take the win. She’s another athlete who could struggle in the swim and will be looking to find a good group on the road. She is a strong cyclist and runner but stepping down to the 100k distance will be challenging given her focus on the full distance.

26. Annamarie Strehlow – the first year pro will get a taste of championship racing in Milwaukee. She dominated regional age group racing in America and came 3rd overall in the age group race in Kona 2022. She’ll improve throughout the race finishing with a strong run. She’s looking for her first pro podium with two top 10’s and a top 4 to her name so far this year.