The PTO delivers another stacked start list on the PTO Tour as the athletes head to the US Open in Milwaukee. The start list includes 13 of the top 20 ranked athletes and has a SOF of 92.46. There are many of the same faces from the European Open with 9 of the top 12 finishers on the start list.

The field could have been even stronger with Marten van Riel and Alistair Brownlee both withdrawing through injury.

I have ranked the start list top to bottom, splitting the athletes into five tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athletes I can see breaking into the top 10
• Mid-Pack – athletes I see finishing in the middle of the field
• Bottom Half – athletes I expect to finish in the bottom half of the field
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Kristian Blummenfelt – the Norwegian will kick off a month of hectic racing in Milwaukee. After the US Open he’ll be heading back to France for the Olympic Test Event and then immediately fly to Singapore to race the Asian Open less than 48 hours later. He’ll finish the month in Finland for the IM 70.3 world champs. He comes to Milwaukee as the #1 ranked athlete and the highest place finisher from Ibiza. He has steadily improved in his four short course races since Ibiza, finishing top 5 in his last two races. Finishing top 5 at sprint and super sprint distance races should mean his run is improved from Ibiza where he wasn’t quite able to reel in Max Neumann. Like many athletes, the European Open was Blummenfelt’s first race of the season. He had a bumpy off season so maybe had more room to improve than his competitors. With a strong front pack of swimmers he’ll be up against it from the gun, especially if he can’t find feet in the water. We saw in Ibiza how Ditlev carried him to the front of the race. If Blummenfelt doesn’t make the front pack he’ll need to make sure he is ahead of or at a minimum with Ditlev coming out of T1. Despite not winning a PTO race yet, Blummenfelt has to be the favourite given there are no other winners in the field. If he doesn’t come into T2 with the leaders he should be within striking distance on the run to take the victory.

2. Magnus Ditlev – he picked up another PTO podium in Ibiza, suffering slightly on the run after riding to the front of the race and orchestrating a split in the pack. It was these clever tactics that earned him the podium, without that split it could have been a real battle on the run. The following month he obliterated Jan Frodeno’s Roth course record, posting an absurd time of 7:24. He shocked everyone with his swim, coming out with the leaders. Let that be a lesson to the lead swimmers to push the pace hard to get rid of him. Is there any chance of him repeating this feat in Milwaukee? Most likely he’ll have a 60-90s gap out of the water. He’ll ride through the field to the leaders and then has a decision to make; save his legs or break apart the race? This will come down to who is at the front. After Ibiza he said he thought he would have the legs to outrun everyone he was with on the bike. His run has definitely improved but in my eyes he would still need around a minute to get the best of some of the better runners.

Challengers

3. Jan Frodeno – the European Open was his first race start in over 10 months and a strong all round performance landed him 4th. As expected he swam front pack but he seemed to struggle on the bike with athletes coming out after the race saying he continued to drop the wheel ahead. He clearly managed his effort on the bike and posted the 5th fastest run to hold off a charging Jason West. He definitely hasn’t had it all his was in his return to racing. He blew up in the closing stages of the run at IM Hamburg, losing 2 places and dropping to 4th. He was put under pressure by Jonas Schomburg at IM 70.3 Andorra, losing time in the swim and not gaining much on the bike. However Frodeno was able to outrun his compatriot to win his first race since 2021. With this racing, you have to expect he’ll be in better shape for Milwaukee than he was Ibiza but so will the rest of the field. With his focus on Nice, will he be able to better his result from Ibiza? 

4. Jason West – he delivered in Ibiza, coming off the bike in 21st and running the fastest split of the day to fly through to 5th, falling just short of Jan Frodeno in 4th. After a busy start to the year, racing four times, he has only raced once since the European Open. He struggled at Escape from Alcatraz, falling behind in the swim and not being able to bridge back to the front of the race. Everyone knows he is one of the best runners in the field and the front pack athletes will be keen to get separation in the water and put time into him on the bike. If he can get in a better pack on the road then great but he has shown he can run serious time into front pack athletes. Out of the 10 athletes that came out of the water ahead of him in Ibiza, he outran 7 of them by at least 5 minutes. That is some absurd speed.

5. Mathis Margirier – he has flown up the rankings this season and has podiumed in his last 6 races, including 2 wins in his most recent races. Even the two races he came second in this year were only by a handful of seconds, losing out to Justus Neischlag in Lanzarote and Sam Laidlow in Gran Canaria. He is a strong all round athlete and his race will be determined by the swim. Both times he has raced Aaron Royle this year he has lost just under a minute. However given the potential size of the front swim pack he could stand a chance to latch onto the back of the group. This would set him up for a strong result. If not then he should be able to jump on the Ditlev train when it catches up. He showed his bike-run strength at the Challenge Championships, riding with Frederic Funk and outrunning Funk and Royle by close to 90 seconds to take a big win. He should be able to fly relatively under the radar given this is his first championship calibre race. He is perfectively capable of displacing some of the better known faces.

6. Daniel Baekkegard – he had a solid day at the European Open but will have been disappointed with his bike, losing 2 minute to the likes of Kanute, Royle and Frodeno. He got his revenge on Kanute and Royle on the run, posting the 4th fastest split of the day and dipping under the hour. With a more complete race I can see him challenging for the top 5 and pushing for the podium. From Ibiza he headed to Roth and was looking in good shape until a mechanical issue derailed his race. He lost up to 10 minutes at the side of the road but was able to continue and managed to battle his way to 4th, running at 2:36 in the process. A seriously impressive performance to battle through the adversity and still have a great result. Without the mechanical he would’ve definitely been on the podium and may have even challenged Lange for 2nd. Let’s see if he can carry this good form into Milwaukee.

7. Ben Kanute – like Baekkegard he went from the European Open to Challenge Roth. In only he second full distance race he set the fastest ever time by an American at 7:37. He had a strong all round performance, swimming front pack, riding with Patrick Lange and running a 2:37. I’m expecting a similar performance in Milwaukee as he had in Ibiza. He’ll swim with the leaders, stick in the front bike pack and his result will come down to his run legs. In Ibiza he lost time on the run and fell to 8th. If he can have a better run then we could see him challenge for the top 5 and hold off the runners coming from behind who will have a deficit off the bike.

8. Aaron Royle – as one of the best swimmers in the sport, expect to see him at the front of the race from the gun. At the European Open he led out the swim and stuck with the lead pack until Ditlev let it splinter and Royle couldn’t make the jump across. He suffered slightly on the run and came home in 10th. He has shown he can swim and ride with the leaders but hasn’t put down a top level run off a hard bike. It was the same story at the Challenge Championships where he came off the bike with Mathis Margirier and couldn’t follow him on the run, losing 80s and coming 2nd. It feels slightly harsh to have him 10th given the potential he showed coming 3rd at the Canadian Open. However West is the only athlete, ranked above him, who raced in Edmonton that finished below him.

9. Frederic Funk – he had a disappointing result in Ibiza, coming out of the water to a flat tyre which resulted in a wheel change. He pushed on but couldn’t make up the time to Ditlev and Blummenfelt. Pushing the bike took it out of his legs and he came home in 19th. Since Ibiza he took a podium at the Challenge Championships behind Margirier and Royle. Following this up with a win at Challenge Walschsee, where he broke away on the bike and had a solid run. In Milwaukee I expect him to come out of the water close to Ditlev and he should be able to ride with him. His run will come down to how hard he has had to work on the bike. 

10. Sam Long – he has bounced back from a rocky start to the season with three consecutive IM 70.3 distance wins. He was unlucky at IM Coeur d’Alene, suffering multiple punctures. There is still a question whether he will make it to the US Open start line. His baby is due on the day of the race and he has said he will not race if the baby hasn’t been born, not wanting to miss the birth. If he does get to to the start line then it will be an uphill battle. He will likely lose in the region of 2.5-3 minutes in the swim and need to close the gap on the bike. He managed this in Dallas but with a stronger field and more favourable conditions it will be a lot harder in Milwaukee. The work he did on the bike in Dallas caught up with him on the run and he wasn’t able to match Ditlev in the closing stages in the battle for 2nd. If he can limit damage on the swim then he could challenge for top 5 but I think it will be difficult to make the podium given the calibre of athlete ahead of him out of the water.

Hopefuls

11. Tom Bishop – after dabbling in middle distance racing last year, Bishop has established himself as a strong middle distance athlete. In Ibiza he swam front pack, stuck with the leaders on the bike but then the race caught up with him on the run and he finished 12th. The run is the missing piece of the puzzle that would take him from challenging for the top 10 at these races to the top 5. He’s talked about dealing with lots of niggles over past few years so hopefully with the consistency he has banked this year he can take his run to the next level and move up the field.

12. Lionel Sanders – he claimed his first win in over a year at IM 70.3 Oregon. However he still isn’t satisfied with his performance. He has been off the pace this year, struggling to match Sam Long on the swim, bike and run. Like Long, he’ll be at a disadvantage coming out of the water. If he can’t follow Long on the bike then I think his bid for the top 10 will be over. He is a superstar athlete but he hasn’t shown it this season. He has gradually improved over the season but this may be slightly too early for him to challenge for the top 5. I expect him to have a better result at 70.3 worlds than he does at the US Open.

13. David McNamee – he made the call to not chase Nice qualification, so this year looks like it will be focused on middle distance racing. He had a brilliant run at the European Open posting the 6th fastest split to run up from 17th to 11th. He raced Funk, Royle and Bishop again at the Challenge Championships but they all lost out to Mathis Margirier. He gave Margirier a closer battle at Challenge Salou, swimming and riding together before the Frenchman broke away on the run. This shows improvement from McNamee that could see him sneaking into the top 10 in Milwaukee.

14. Miki Taagholt – he missed the European Open as his baby was expected to be born around the same time as the race. Since then he podium at IM 70.3 Warsaw and won his first career race at IM 70.3 Luxembourg. This ranking is possibly too low considering he has finished top 6 at the last two IM 70.3 world championships and came 10th at the Canadian Open last season. I expect him to be in the chase pack of athletes in the swim with McNamee and West. He is a strong rider but is probably weakest on the run. If he over bikes then he could struggle on the run with the pace coming from behind.

15. Florian Angert – it’s been a tough year so far for the German, finishing outside the top 10 in all three races he has done, including 15th at the European Open. Last year at the US Open he rode off the front of the race and ended up finishing in 5th. Will he be able to rediscover his form in Milwaukee? He is a front pack swimmer and is strong on the bike. He should be in a position to stick with the leaders until T2. I doubt he’ll be able to gain a gap on the bike like he did in Dallas given the strength of the front group. Purely going of his performances last year I would’ve had him in the top 10 but he hasn’t been at the same level. I’m hoping he proves me wrong and we see him in better form.

16. Braden Currie – this will be his first race outside of Australasia since Kona 2022 where he was sick in the lead up which resulted in a DNF. He has proven himself over the full distance with numerous wins and a podium at the St George world champs in 2022. We haven’t seen him at a championship level middle distance race since 2018. I’m interested to see how he performs over this distance. He should make the front swim pack but he’ll need a good ride to hang with that group. With Brownlee and van Riel out of the race it may not be as aggressive as it could have been which will assist Currie. The test will be when Ditlev catches. I expect him to have a strong all round performance that could see him make the top 10 if athletes ahead haven’t paced themselves.

Mid-Pack

17. Clement Mignon – he had a strong finish to the end of the 2022 season with top 10s at both IM and IM 70.3 world champs. However he wasn’t able to crack the top 10 on the PTO Tour. After winning the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships and IM France he’ll be fancying his chances to break into the top 10 in 2023. He’s a strong all round athlete and if he can limit his deficit in the swim then he’ll be on for a good day. He’s typically performed better over the full distance so I am interested to see how he goes over 100k.

18. Jackson Laundry – a very consistent year so far finishing 3rd at three North American 70.3s. He was supposed to race 70.3 Mont Tremblant which was cancelled on race morning due to the wild wires, so it will be close to a three month stretch with no racing. At the US Open last year he came out of the water with Ditlev but lost over 6 minutes to him on the bike. If he can get in the pack with Ditlev and Funk then he could get an “easier” ride to the front of the race. He’ll come out of the water ahead of Long and Sanders so if he gets dropped by Ditlev he should be able to hang with them. He struggled on the PTO Tour last year finishing 19th and 17th in Edmonton and Dallas respectively. He’ll be looking for a better result in Milwaukee after deciding not to make the trip to Ibiza.

19. Thor Bendix Madsen – following his podium at IM 70.3 Lanzarote he picked up a stress fracture in is fibula. That has kept him out of racing and he’ll make his return in Milwaukee. It is a slight unknown how fit he’ll be coming into the race and he won’t have the race fitness that all the other athletes will have. However he showed at 70.3 worlds last year he can beat many athletes on this start list. He’ll have a deficit out of the water in the region of two minutes but will ride one of the fastest times of the day. If he can pace his bike better than the US Open last year and save some legs for the run then he could be in for a better result

20. Kristian Hogenhaug – he had a solid swim and bike at the European Open, coming into T2 in 11th. However he struggled on the run and fell to 16th. He raced a month later at IM Hamburg and pipped Frodeno to the final spot on the podium in the closing stages of the run. He looked to carry his form from Hamburg into IM France but finished with a DNF as the fatigue caught up with him. He had an amazing race at the US Open last year, finishing 6th ahead of lots of athletes on the start list.

Bottom Half

21. Trevor Foley – he’s having a career year and is fresh off back to back podiums on consecutive weekends, including a win at IM 70.3 Maine just this weekend. This result has moved him up to #25 in the PTO rankings, a very impressive ranking for someone in only their second full pro season. I fully understand why Foley prioritised racing Oregon and Maine in the lead up to the US Open. He will have gone into those races with an expectation of a good result, earning PTO points and prize money. However this will damage his chances of a good result in Milwaukee. He’ll be carrying the fatigue from two races and has only 4 days recovery before he races again. He’ll be chasing from the gun but he has shown he can be one of the fastest on land when he has good legs.

22. Chris Leiferman – health issues early in the year meant he didn’t kick off his season until June, with a podium at IM 70.3 Boulder. He backed this up 2 weeks later with his first win since 2020 at IM Coeur d’Alene, booking his Nice slot. He has primarily been a full distance focused athlete but did race at the US Open last year. A solid bike-run got him 13th place, just over a minute back from 10th. He’ll have a deficit out of the water but they’ll be plenty of bike power to work with and move through the field.

23. Matthew Marquardt – two pro races, two pro podiums. Marquardt has made the age group to pro transition look easy, securing a Nice slot in his debut with 3rd at IM Texas. He went one better at IM Coeur d’Alene with 2nd behind Chris Leiferman. He might be able to jump on the back of the front swim pack, otherwise he’ll be with the chasers. He’s shown all round ability in his two IM races but Milwaukee will definitely be a step up. The 100k distance represents a different kind of racing, so I am fascinated to see how he performs.

24. Sam Appleton – after finishing in the top 10 of the 70.3 world championships for five consecutive years, he has struggled to find that form on the PTO Tour. He finished 29th at the Canadian Open and 27th at the US Open last year. This was in a year where he was transitioning to full distance racing, but after qualifying for Kona he struggled in the race. His most recent race at IM 70.3 Boulder was derailed by a penalty but up to that point he was looking strong. He should make the front swim pack but may struggle to ride with the leaders.

25. Marc Dubrick – his running has been really strong so far this year, running the 3rd fastest split at IM 70.3 St George and the fastest split by close to two minutes at IM 70.3 Oregon. He’ll be in the front swim pack but could struggle to stick in that group. He lost 10 minutes to Sam Long and Trevor Foley in St George which is huge. We have seen in the PTO races athletes move through the field on the run so if he has good run legs we could see him chasing down athletes who went too hard on the run.

26. Tim O’Donnell – it’s been a quiet year so far for O’Donnell. He took a win at IM 70.3 Peru but hasn’t raced since Gulf Coast in May. He’ll either be at the back of the lead swim pack or with the chasers. He lost time to Sanders and Long at Gulf Coast on the bike so it is unlikely he’ll stick with the leaders unless it’s a big group. He hasn’t raced on the PTO Tour yet so the pace of racing could be a shock to the system.

27. Gregory Barnaby – he’s coming off his best pro season with 6 podiums. He extended his podium streak to 5 in a row at IM 70.3 Maine this weekend just gone. He couldn’t match Foley on the bike or run and finished 5 minutes back. He hasn’t raced at this level as he had to withdraw from the European Open. The pace is going to be on in Milwaukee, so it could be a difficult day.

28. Bradley Weiss – he had a relatively consistent day at the European Open, finishing 17th with all his splits in the top 18. The only athlete who finished below him who is racing is Frederic Funk who I expect to have a much better day. Weiss should come out of the water in a good pack of riders like Funk and Ditlev. However it will be a challenge to follow them on the road. He came off the bike with McNamee in Ibiza who ended up in 11th with a strong run. If Weiss can elevate his run performance then we could see him further up the table.

29. Josh Amberger – he’s coming off a strong performance at IM Lake Placid, where he was chased down by Ben Hoffman and Matt Hanson on the run to end up in 4th. He raced at the US Open last season finishing 18th. The race dynamics should play more in his favour in Milwaukee, as in Dallas the front swim pack was 20 athletes strong. Depending on the pace of the swim, the lead swim pack could still be 10+ athletes which could hinder any chances to build an advantage for the run.