Athletes are headed to Singapore for the third and final stop on the PTO Tour. It’s a quick turnaround from Milwaukee with only two weeks between the races.

The start list is smaller than usual, with a max of 20 athletes, and includes 8 of the top 20 ranked athletes with a SOF of 91.34.

I have ranked the start list top to bottom, splitting the athletes into four tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athletes I see breaking the top 10
• Bottom Half – athletes I expect to finish in the bottom half of the field
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Ashleigh Gentle – she had another great performance at the US Open but it wasn’t enough to beat Taylor Knibb. She had a solid swim coming out with the chasers one minute down on the American. The turning point was 65k into the bike when Lucy Byram caught the lead chase pack and attacked. Only Paula Findlay could follow and Gentle lost 32s to Knibb over the final 15k. She was running really well early in the run, taking 32s out of Knibb lead on the first lap. However the pace slowed and she came up short, finishing 51s back. With no Knibb on the start list in Singapore I think this makes Gentle the favourite. She’ll be up against Anne Haug who got the better of her in Ibiza. Haug had great early season form while Gentle was still building into the season. I think Gentle has more room to improve from Ibiza than Haug. Gentle will have an advantage out of the water and if she can come off the bike ahead of Haug then I think she’ll take the win. She’ll have Salthouse to work with on the bike again. As well as Lotte Wilms, Sara Perez Sala and Fenella Langridge, who Gentle rode with in Ibiza. The issue could be missing the driving force of Paula Findlay and India Lee, that could allow Haug to catch on the bike.

2. Anne Haug – three wins and one second place so far this season has extended her podium streak to 19 races in a row. The last time she finished off the podium was IM Frankfurt in July 2018 when she finished 4th. Her early season form was impeccable and she capped it off with a brilliant win at the European Open, her first PTO Tour event. She lost too much time on the bike in Challenge Roth to contest Daniela Ryf but she did win the battle with Chelsea Sodaro and Laura Philipp to take second. Looking back at Ibiza she only lost 33s to Gentle in the water. However Gentle’s swim looks to have improved since then. She lost 32s to Rebecca Clarke in Milwaukee, compared to 1:42 in Ibiza. Therefore can we expect Haug to have a bigger gap to close on the bike? Haug marginally outrode Gentle in Ibiza, the difference maker was the run where she put three minutes into the Australian. I’m confident Haug won’t run three minutes faster than Gentle in Singapore but she could still have the edge on the run if they come toe to toe.

3. Lucy Charles-Barclay – it’s been a relatively quiet year for the Brit. She kicked off her season in Ibiza, getting caught on the run by Haug and Gentle to take 3rd after being solo for most of the day. Two weeks later she made a flying visit to Germany to race IM 70.3 Kraichgau, where she had a great battle with Laura Philipp and Ellie Salthouse but fell short and came 2nd. Since then she has been focusing on training so it will be a 3 month gap between races. After having visa issues earlier in the year which restricted her European travel, she has managed to get back to Lanzarote for some solid training as well as a stint at altitude in Font Romeu. Expect to see the same as Ibiza, where she led out the swim and remained solo on the bike. There is definitely less power on the bike for the chasers with no India Lee, Paula Findlay or Holly Lawrence. That will make LCB harder to reel in. So I expect her to come into T2 alone. She probably needs at least 2 minutes on Gentle and Haug to take the win. But anything within 4 minutes and they will still fancy their chances of chasing her down.

4. Chelsea Sodaro – she opted not to race the US Open, after being on the start list and featuring heavily in the PTO’s build up. This continues what has to be considered a disappointing season so far for the reigning IM world champion. She had some good early season form at IM 70.3 Oceanside, running a 1:16 run split to take 2nd. However since then it has been rocky, with DNF’s at the European Open and Challenge Roth. She clearly decided she wasn’t ready to challenge for the win in Milwaukee and now her attention will shift to Singapore. She needs a result here if she wants to improve her PTO ranking. She’s already fallen to 17th but if she has a bad performance then she could fall out of the top 100. After the Asian Open there aren’t many top level races remaining, especially as she didn’t pick up her 70.3 worlds slot.

Challengers

5. Ellie Salthouse – she had a career best result at the US Open, finishing 6th and only 21s back from 4th. She came out of the water with the chase pack and unlike Ibiza she was able to stick with them on the bike and worked to limit damage to Knibb. She couldn’t follow Byram and Findlay when Byram attacked with 15k to go on the bike and she came into T2 with Gentle and Lawrence close to three minutes down on the lead. You can see she had worked on the bike as she suffered with cramps through T2, however she was able to shake them off and get into a good rhythm. She was caught by Lawrence on the 2nd lap and lost 30s to the Brit. However she slowly reeled her in but fell short by 3s and had to settle for 6th. This performance showed a marked improvement for Salthouse. Prior to this she had finished outside the top 10 at her last three championship level events. If she can recover and carry this form to Singapore then she’ll fancy her top 5 chances and maybe even a podium.

6. Fenella Langridge – she will have been disappointed with 15th at the European Open after a strong swim and bike. She struggled on the run falling from 7th to 15th. She was off the pace at the Challenge Championships but has had strong performances since then with 4th at Challenge Roth and a win at the inaugural Challenge London. I think she can improve on her swim from Ibiza and should be able to go with Rebecca Clarke and Lotte Wilms and gain an advantage over Gentle and Salthouse. She is weakest on the run so if she can set herself up with finding a good pack in the swim and a solid ride then she could challenge for the top 5.

7. Marjolaine Pierre – she made her PTO Tour debut in Milwaukee and had a solid performance to finish 12th. She came out of the water where expected, with Kat Matthews. This pair worked together on the bike for the whole 80k and were by themselves for the majority of the ride. They lost just over a minute to the likes of Gentle, Salthouse and Lawrence. Pierre couldn’t follow Matthews on the run, losing 4 and a half minutes to the Brit. This was the difference between her challenging for the top 8 vs finishing 12th. If she can have a better run off a hard bike in Singapore then she could challenge for the top 5. She is a strong bike-runner and her run at the US Open was below her normal standards. She won’t have Matthews to work with on the bike but if she can swim with Sodaro then they could work together to move up the field.

8. Lotte Wilms – she had a brilliant performance in Ibiza, finishing 9th. This is her best result at a championship level event and the first time she’s made the top 10. She had a strong swim, coming out of the water in second and she was able to hang with the Findlay-Gentle pack when they caught. Her run was the weakest but she keep her position in the top 10. Expect to see much of the same in Singapore, she’ll be in the chase pack behind Lucy Charles-Barclay and I expect her to come into T2 with Langridge, Salthouse, Perez Sala and Gentle. If she can improve on her run from Ibiza then she’ll be in for a better result.

9. Sara Perez Sala – she had a good swim-bike in Ibiza, riding with the chase pack, but she didn’t show what she was capable of on the run. She ran the 5th slowest split to drop out of the top 10 to 14th. She redeemed herself quickly with a podium at the Challenge Championships two weeks later, showing a more complete performance. She’s coming off a DNF at the IM 70.3 European champs and said after the race she isn’t feeling fit enough yet. After a busy May she had a quieter training month in June and also picked up an illness that made returning to full on training more difficult. At full fitness she would be challenging for the top 5 in the field, lets see where she is at on race day.

Hopefuls

10. Jeanni Metzler – Milwaukee was her second PTO Tour event and I think she’ll be disappointed with her performance. She lost 1:26 in the water to Paula Findlay, someone she would normally swim with. She lost further time on the bike because of this, but moved up from 18th to 15th with a solid run. If she can have the swim she is capable of in Singapore then she’ll be in for a better result. She’ll have to work hard on the bike to hang with the likes of Salthouse and Gentle but I still think a faster swim will result in a faster bike for Metzler.

11. Sarah True – after appearing on the US Open start list she opted to skip Milwaukee and focus on the Asian Open and the build to Kona. She’ll make her PTO Tour debut in Singapore and will be in the mix for a top 10 finish. She is a strong swimmer so should make the pack with Gentle and Salthouse. She is weakest on the bike so could struggle to stick with that group on the road. However she has shown her run strength this season, with the 2nd fastest run at IM 70.3 Chattanooga and the fastest split at IM Frankfurt where she took the win. If she can limit damage on the road then she should outperform this ranking.

Bottom Half

12. Rebecca Clarke – she had similar performances in Milwaukee and Ibiza; strong swim, solid bike and poor run. She’s been in the bottom three run splits in both races. She will always be towards the front of the race with her swim ability but it seems like she gets caught up in the the race dynamics and consistently over bikes. So many athletes over bike in these PTO races and it is becoming easier for athletes further down the field to pace the bike and run through. I think with a better paced effort in Singapore she could be challenging for the top 10 in this field.

13. Amelia Watkinson – she’s coming off 5th at the IM 70.3 European champs. She lost time on the bike to the podium athletes but she had the 4th fastest run to move through the field. This was a similar story to the Challenge Championships where she ran the fastest split of the day to move up to 4th. If she can limit damage on the bike then this style of racing could bode well for a better result than her 16th at the European Open. We consistently see athletes over bike and Watkinson is someone I can see capitalising on this and moving up the leader board on the run.

14. Jocelyn McCauley – she had a below average swim at the US Open by her standards. In Ibiza she put close to a minute into Tamara Jewett but this time round Jewett came out of the water just ahead of her. Similar story on the bike, in Ibiza she had the 4th fastest split compared to 17th at the US Open. Then on the run it was comparable between the races but she still went backwards. I expect her to have a better day across the swim and bike in Singapore that should lead to a better result.

15. Jackie Hering – another athlete that struggled in the swim at the US Open. If you look back at IM 70.3 worlds from last season, she outswam Marjolaine Pierre and Tamara Jewett by 50 seconds. In Milwaukee she lost 30 seconds to each of them. That is a significant swing. She showed her strength on the run moving up 4 spot to 17th but she left herself with too much to do after a poor bike. She said after the race her body just wasn’t firing on all cylinders, which it needs to be for PTO racing. She was top 10 at 70.3 worlds last year so has shown she can mix it up at the top on her day.

16. Ruth Astle – like the US Open I was surprised to see her added to the Asian Open start list. She didn’t make it to Milwaukee but remains on the start list for Singapore. She has been working hard all year on her swimming so I am keen to see her put it into practice in a race. Her strength is the bike but the 80k may not be enough to reel people in. The question mark will be her run, she’s been dealing with a calf injury that has limited her running.

17. Radka Kahlefeldt – she’ll make her second PTO Tour appearance in Singapore after debuting in Edmonton last season. She struggled in the swim and bike last season and finished 25th. So far this season she has podiumed in all four of her races, taking second each time. In her last two races she has lost out to Kylie Simpson over the full distance. She lost significant time over the bike and run. Given the ferocity of PTO racing she will likely struggle with the bike and run pace.

18. Penny Slater – like Kahlefeldt she’ll be making her second appearance on the PTO Tour. She has already raced Kahlefeldt three times this year, losing out on all three occasions. However she does have four podiums to her name including third at IM South Africa behind Laura Philipp and Fenella Langridge. Like Kahlefeldt I think she could struggle with the pace of PTO racing.