Championship racing is back in St George for the Ironman 70.3 World Championships. Gustav Iden and Kristian Blummenfelt have both enjoyed success on this course, can anyone stop them winning again in St George?

Contenders

Gustav Iden – reining Ironman and Ironman 70.3 World Champion is looking to make it a historic double and three-peat. The technical bike course plays to his strengths, something he was able to use in 2021 to breakaway.

Kristian Blummenfelt – looking to bounce back from 3rd at Kona by getting the better of his training partner Iden. Could this be the race Blummenfelt comes out on top?

Sam Long – decided not to race at Kona to focus on this world championships. He the only top contender who didn’t race in Kona so should be coming in fresh and dialled in for the distance.

Magnus Ditlev – fell to 8th in Kona after suffering a 5 minute penalty in the closing stages of the bike. He won at Challenge Roth and came second at the US Open, really showing he can mix it up over any distance.

Swim

Swimming in mens long course triathlon has changed this year, with some of the top swimmers reluctant to drive the pace to break apart the field. At both the US Open and Kona we saw close to 20 athletes in the front pack. If the Norwegian duo can make the front pack again then the field should be worried.

I’d expect to see Aaron Royle and Ben Kanute setting the pace and be joined by Eric Lagerstrom, Marc Dubrick, Miki Taagholt and Blummenfelt. Iden was able to stick with Blummenfelt at the Canadian Open and in Kona so we could also see him make this group.

Magnus Ditlev will likely lose close to a minute and Sam Long could be around 2 minutes down depending on how fast the pace is at the front of the race. Ditlev could be joined by Frederic Funk coming out of the water which will provide a partner to work with on the bike. Trevor Foley impressed in his win at IM 70.3 Waco with a dominate bike-run combination, however he may be too far back after the swim to challenge for the top 5 in this race. He could run himself into the top 10 as others fade.

Bike

The technical bike course will favour athletes who are comfortable descending in the aero bars. Iden was able to put significant time into the chasers on the more technical sections where traditional long course athletes have less experience.

If the swim goes how I expect there could be a pack of around 8 athletes heading out of T1 together. Kanute likes to hit the front early and this works in the Norwegian duos favour. We have seen them sit in early on in races before heading to the front to try and break the field apart. They won’t want the pace to settle too much with Ditlev and Long chasing them down.

Ditlev has been aggressive on the bike in every race I have seen him in this year. In Kona, Roth and Dallas he bridged up to the front of the race within 20k, expect to see the same in St George. Long will also be working his way through the field and will want to close the gap to Ditlev as early as possible. The pair worked well in Dallas and were able to blow apart the field. Funk will have seen the benefits Collin Chartier got in the US Open from following Long and Ditlev, he will try and emulate this in St George.

Iden’s tactics in 2021 were to get a gap on the bike, in pre-race interviews he has said he may save himself for the run, but this could just be talk. If he does try to breakaway then Blummenfelt will be unlikely to let him get away easy, and Ditlev and Long will be chasing them down fast. We could see this group come into T2 all together.

Run

With the top contenders coming off the bike close together it will be down to the run to decide who takes the crown. The run course has been changed this year to feature less elevation which should result in faster times all round.

Blummenfelt and Iden have been a class apart on the run in every single race this year. They are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the PTO rankings for the run and I can’t see them being beaten over the half marathon. Expect to see them breakaway from Long and Ditlev before duking it out over the final lap.

Long and Ditlev have similar run ability so it could come down to who has had to work harder on the bike. Ditlev and the Norwegians may still be carrying some Kona fatigue into the race and this could start to bite on the run.

I can see Funk being within touching distance of Long and Ditlev but I don’t think he has the run to stay with them and he could be at risk of being caught by the chasers. There are some speedy runners further down in the field. Jason West, Matt Hanson, Royle and Foley will all be hoping to rise through the field.

Predictions

Iden has proven time and time again that he is dominant over the 70.3 distance. Blummenfelt had the edge at the Collins Cup and only just ran out of road at the Canadian Open after suffering cramps. I am excited to see who comes out on top.

1. Gustav Iden – having not lost of middle distance race in years its had to imagine him ever losing. He will be battling Kona fatigue and lack of specific training but he was so dominant in 2021 that this may not matter.
2. Kristian Blummenfelt – he didn’t quite have it down the stretch in Kona and he will have his work cut out following Iden on the bike. With his run pedigree he should be able to breakaway from the rest of the field.
3. Sam Long – he chose to focus on this race rather than joining the main contenders in Kona. Will this play to his advantage and can he cause an upset?
4. Magnus Ditlev – will dominant the bike leg, just depends if he can get enough of a gap to survive on the run. Another athlete who could be feeling the effects of a tough race in Kona.
5. Aaron Royle – Showed he can outlast athletes on the run in Edmonton. A strong all rounder who has really taken to middle distance racing.