The best athletes in the world are heading to Ibiza to battle it out at the first ever PTO European Open. This is arguably one of the greatest fields ever assembled with the top 9 athletes all down to race. It would have been the full 10 until Lisa Norden withdrew due to injury.

With a SOF of 92.23 and a strength of start list rating of 92%, this will be one of the strongest fields we see all year.

I have ranked the start list top to bottom, splitting the athletes into four tiers.

• Contenders – athletes I can see winning the race
• Challengers – athletes I don’t think can win the race outright, but can challenge for the top 5 or sneak onto the podium
• Hopefuls – athlete I see in the middle of the field that could break into the top 10
• Long Shots – athletes I expect to finish in the bottom half of the field
• If athletes are ranked in the same tier then I consider them to be closely matched and their numerical ranking is of a lower importance, especially further down the field

Contenders

1. Lucy Charles-Barclay – after missing the first half of the 2022 season through injury, she returned to race four times over the final couple months of the season and now sits #2 in the PTO rankings. Expect to see her breakaway during the swim and she has the ability to stay away on the bike. She was only caught by Taylor Knibb at the US Open and put over a minute into the rest of the field. The race will come down to the run, if she is back in 2021 form then it could be a lonely day at the front.

2. Ashleigh Gentle – she went 2 from 2 at the PTO Tour events in 2022, utilising her devastating run to take both victories. Her competitors will want to make sure she works on the bike to hinder her run legs. She struggled at her first race in Europe this year, taking 3rd at Peniscola Infinitri. Is this an indicator of where she’s at or can we put this performance down to travel?

3. Anne Haug – across her 23 long course races, she has only every finished off the podium once. That record is crazy when you consider it includes four IM world championships, two Challenge Roth’s, 2020 Challenge Daytona and a IM 70.3 world championship. Eight championship level races and she finished on the podium at all of them. She always races well at big races, will this continue in Ibiza? She kicked of the 2023 season will two dominant wins at IM 70.3 Lanzarote and Challenge Gran Canaria. Her run has been on fire and it could carry her to the win, but first she’ll need to stay in touch on the bike.

4. Chelsea Sodaro – she showed she can do it over any distance last year, taking 3rd at the Canadian Open and winning in dominant fashion at the IM World Championships. She opened her season in Oceanside but lost out to Tamara Jewett on the run. This overshadowed her performance, where she ran a 1:15:20 half marathon. The swim will be crucial as she could find herself on the backfoot from the off with strong packs of cyclists further up the road.

5. Tamara Jewett – she kicked off her season in a big way, taking the win at Oceanside and beating 4 athletes that were all ranked above her. She ran an unbelievable 1:13:00 half marathon but what enabled her to take the win was keeping in touch during the swim and bike. The other athletes have all said it wasn’t their best day out but this still shows a good improvement from Jewett. She will need to find a good pack on the bike but she will always be a threat on the run if she is within 3-4 minutes.

6. Daniela Ryf – it would be easy to fall subject to recency bias and not consider what Ryf achieved last year. Winning the IM World Championships in St George was huge and she showed what she can do over the 100k distance at the Collins Cup. She will need to be at her best to challenge for the top in Ibiza. With the strength of runners in the field she’ll need a gap off the bike and her competitors will be unwilling to let her get away. It feels like she is being written off again, will she prove everyone wrong again like she did in May last year?

Challengers

7. Paula Findlay – coming off her best middle distance season where she came 2nd at the Canadian Open and the IM 70.3 World Championships. She opened her 2023 campaign at IM 70.3 Oceanside where she struggled after leading the chase group on the bike. As with Jason West she is coming off a victory at St Anthony’s, will racing and travelling so close to the race be detrimental to her podium chances?

8. Emma Pallant-Browne – she’s coming off a career year, podiuming at all 9 races she finished, including 3rd at the IM 70.3 World Championships. Over the past two seasons she has raced 21 times and has 17 podiums. Seriously impressive. She has already been racing in Ibiza, winning the World Duathlon Championships. She looks in fine form heading into the European Open and is another athlete that will be coming from behind. At the IM 70.3 World Championships she caught athletes later in the run, will she run out of road on Saturday?

9. Holly Lawrence – she is one of the most consistent athletes in the field. She hasn’t finished lower than 8th in a race since 2015 and was top 6 at both PTO Tour events and the IM 70.3 World Championships in 2022. Like Findlay she opened her season in Oceanside. She led out the swim and through the first half of the bike, but struggled on the run to take 4th. She will have more company in this race and will need better run legs to challenge the athletes around her.

10. Fenella Langridge – she enjoyed success over the middle distance at the start of her career but excelled last season over the full distance, coming 2nd at Challenge Roth, 6th in Kona and 8th in St George. She struggled at the PTO Tour races finishing with two DNFs. Expect to see her near the front from the gun, if she has a good swim then she could try and close the gap to Charles-Barclay on the bike, like she did in Kona. She will have a lead over many of the contenders out of the water but will need to hang on if they catch her on the bike.

Hopefuls

11. Lucy Byram – she flew up the PTO rankings earlier this year with two wins at Clash Miami and Challenge Puerto Varas, this moved her into the top 30 and secured her slot for Ibiza. She is an all rounder but excels on the bike. She has been aero testing with her sponsor Huub over the winter so expect her to be dialled in. This race will be a significant step up but I’m excited to see how she performs.

12. Maja Stage Nielsen – coming off an impressive display at IM Texas where she came 2nd to Kat Matthews. A 5 minute marathon PB shows what good shape she is in but given the quick turnaround we’ll have to see if this carries over to the 100k distance. She is a solid all round athlete and that consistency can deliver a good result at these races when athletes around you are blowing up.

13. Sif Madsen – she only raced her first long course race in December of last year, but her performances and Clash Daytona and Clash Miami were enough to secure a wildcard slot to Ibiza. She showed her strength on the bike at Clash Miami, where she rode the fastest split and built enough of a lead with Lucy Byram to secure 2nd. She is currently ranked 136 but a decent result in Ibiza would see her move into at least the top 50. Not bad for a 21 year old.

14. India Lee – she struggled at the PTO Tour events last year, finishing 17th at the Canadian Open and DNF’d in Dallas. She looked strong at the IM 70.3 World Championships but was hit with a penalty that dropped her from the lead chase group. She opened her season with 2nd an IM 70.3 Lanzarote where she swam and rode well but didn’t get anywhere near Anne Haug on the run. She could push for the top 10 if she bikes well.

15. Sara Perez Sala – she has performed well over the shorter distances in her last two races at Clash Miami and Clash Daytona. However she really struggled at the PTO Tour events last year. She swam well in both races but couldn’t match the pace on the bike and feel further behind on the run. She will be in a good position out of the water, she just needs to find the right pack on the bike.

16. Ellie Salthouse – she has typically been very good at Silver tier races but hasn’t had a breakthrough result at an elite level race. She finished 8th at the Canadian Open last year but was outside the top 10 at both the US Open and IM 70.3 World Championships. She has already raced three times this year so could have the advantage over the athletes that are not 100% race ready.

17. Jocelyn McCauley – she had a great performance at IM Texas, taking 3rd returning from injury. It’s a quick turnaround from Texas to racing in Ibiza so it will be interesting to see how she performs. She raced both PTO Tour events in 2022 but only cracked the top 10 in Dallas, finishing 7th. Ibiza with be a very different pace to Texas so it could be a tough race for McCauley.

18. Rebecca Clarke – she’s already made the podium three times in 2023 at races in the southern hemisphere. She came 8th at the US Open with a consistent all round performance. She’ll be in the lead chase group out of the water and if she finds a good group on the bike she could easily move into the top half of the field.

Long Shots

19. Anne Reischmann – three podiums across 10 races in 2022 and 10th at the IM 70.3 World Championships. She put together an impressive bike-run combo in St George, logging the 6th fastest bike and 5th fastest run. She will be on the backfoot out of the water but there should be other good cyclists making their way through the field she can work with.

20. Lotte Wilms – She was outside the top 10 at each of the PTO Tour events and the IM 70.3 World Championships in 2022. However she impressed in the swim in St George by hanging with Charles-Barclay and Taylor Knibb. Could she do the same in Ibiza? If not she will likely come out with Langridge, then she’ll need to hang tough on the bike to stand a chance of a good result.

21. Diede Diederiks – coming off 2nd place at Challenge Gran Canaria, where she recovered from a four minute deficit out of the water. She made four podiums in 2022 but at the IM 70.3 World Championships she struggled, losing 6 minutes in the water. She will have lots of work to do on the bike given the swim is longer at the PTO races.

22. Daniela Bleymehl – she performed best over the full distance last year with wins at IM South Africa, IM Germany and 2nd at IM Israel. She wasn’t able to carry this form to Kona where she DNF’d. At the Challenge Family Championship last year she came out of the water close to 6 minutes down on the leaders, if this repeats in Ibiza then it could be a long day.

23. Grace Thek – another athlete who has three podiums in 2023 from races in the southern hemisphere, including two wins. She raced the US Open last year but she struggled on the bike and run, after coming out of the water in 15th. She is another athlete that has enjoyed success over the Silver tier races but hasn’t had a big result at an elite race.

24. Els Visser – she’s started well in 2023 with 2nd at Challenge Wanaka half and taking the win at IM New Zealand. She didn’t race any of the PTO Tour last year and could struggle with the pace of the swim from the off. She’ll need to find packs on the road to have an impact on the race.

25. Amelia Watkinson – she’s barely raced outside of the southern hemisphere since Challenge Daytona in 2020. She came 5th in that race, beating lots of athlete on this start list. She has finished on the podium in her last 11 races but I am just not sure how that form with translate to this level of racing. That Daytona performance shows she can mix it up with the best but we haven’t seen it since then.

26. Luisa Baptista – started the 2022 season with good form, winning two South American races and taking 2nd at IM 70.3 Oceanside. She struggled on the bike at the Canadian Open and had to settle for 20th. This will be the key for if she has a good race. If she can stay with a good group on the road and share the work then she could outperform that Edmonton result.

27. Barbara Riveros – she made seven podiums out of seven races in 2022 and kicked off the 2023 season with a win at IM 70.3 Pucon. However at Challenge Puerto Varas she was 20 minutes back from Lucy Byram. Byram has a chance to break into the top 10 at this race but 20 minutes is a big deficit.